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Newsletter - February 18, 2002


ASIA PACIFIC HOTEL INVESTORS BANK ON MEDIUM TERM TRADING EXPECTATIONS

Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels Releases Latest Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey

Sydney, February 13, 2002 — Despite a worsening of short term trading outlook, hotel investors in the Asia Pacific remain optimistic of recovery over the medium term, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels' latest Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey (HISS).  The survey, which targets the world's 1,800 largest investors and owners of tourism properties, is the only global survey of its kind.

“This sentiment is echoed globally” said David Gibson, CEO-Asia Pacific, of Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels.  “Within two years all markets, led by Europe and the United States, are expected to return to pre-2001 levels”.

Comparing the region to Europe and the US, the Asia Pacific boasts the most positive short term outlook of all the regions.  Investors expect the region’s geographic isolation and the strength of certain economies to act as a cushion to the global economic slowdown.

As would be predicted, given the economic slowdown and the impact of September 11, the short-term outlook for occupancy and room rate in the Asia Pacific hotel markets has worsened from neutral in the previous survey (June 2001) to negative in January 2002.  The medium term outlook is however optimistic, with recovery expected in mid to late 2002. 

OCCUPANCY AND  ADR

The stand out trading performers in the short term are Shanghai and Beijing, which have withstood the economic downturn of the region.  A roaring medium term outlook for Beijing indicates that current investor interest is likely to accelerate in the lead up to the 2008 Olympic Games. 

Investors are also optimistic, over the short-medium term, for the Brisbane and Gold Coast markets.  Both markets have experienced strong domestic demand growth and anticipate minimal supply growth.

Expected to enjoy the most rapid turnaround in the short to medium term is Sydney, where residential conversions will reduce overall supply during 2002.
 

Trading Performance Expections  (Occupancy & ADR)
Asia Pacific Hotel Markets

What’s Hot - Shanghai, Bejing, Phuket
Up and Coming - Seoul, Brisbane, Bangkok
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels’ Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey

INVESTMENT INTENTIONS

Asia Pacific investors revealed an extremely low interest in selling assets (14.0%).   “This suggests that most owners are unhappy with current pricing levels and are unwilling to sell in a weak market.  It also shows confidence in future trading improvement” explained Mr Gibson.  “The survey shows that the majority  (46.7%) intend to hold onto their assets and ride out the current downturn in market performance, poised to reap the benefits of the upturn”.

The buy sentiment is the only strategy to have declined in favour since the last survey, reconfirming the expectation of further decline in trading performance.  Markets falling out of favour since our last survey are Tokyo, Seoul and Hong Kong as investors are discouraged by the lack of investment opportunities.

Whilst Beijing and Phuket, along with Seoul are the preferred destinations for the development of hotels, only 15.0% of investors in the Asia Pacific indicate they would build hotels in the current climate.
 

Investment Intentions
Asia Pacific Hotel Markets

Hold - Melbourne, Singapore, Auckland 
Sell - Gold Coast,  Hong Kong, Tokyo 
Buy - Bali, Bangkok, Shanghai 
Build - Seoul, Phuket, Beijing
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels’ Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey

Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, the world’s leading hotel investment services group, provides clients with value-added investment opportunities and advice. In 2001, its success story includes the sale of 7,972 hotel rooms to the value of US$1.3 billion in 39 cities and advisory expertise on 100,550 rooms to the value of US$26.3 billion across 255 cities. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels’ services include transactions, mergers and acquisitions, financial advice and capital raising, valuation and appraisal, asset management, strategic planning, operator assessment and selection and industry research.  Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL) is the world’s leading real estate services and investment management firm, operating across more than 100 key markets on five continents

Contact:
Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
Fiona Cregan 
tel: +612 9220 8786  
fiona.cregan@ap.joneslanglasalle.com 
www.joneslanglasallehotels.com

U.S. SCRUTINY URGED FOR HOTELS’ NET PLAN

A new company formed by top hotel chains to link travel sites to room reservation systems should be closely scrutinized by the government, a travel agent industry group said.

The American Society of Travel Agents expressed concerns about plans the hoteliers announced Monday to launch the Hotel Distribution System (HDS)

Source: News.com

Portals offering hotel listings are attracting growing numbers of Internet users and becoming an important marketing tool for hotel owners, according to industry officials, while Web designers and portal owners see a demand for increasingly sophisticated services such as online booking.

“We saw a 20% increase in visitors last month compared to January 2001, and I expect this trend to continue throughout the year,” said Bolesław Fabisiak co-owner of hotelsinpoland.com.

More than 200 hotels pay an annual fee to be listed on the site, which provides photographs, contact addresses and links to hotel Web sites. Hotelsinpoland.com can be accessed using the Internet and mobile phones supporting the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP).

According to Fabisiak, the gradual increase in the number of Internet users in Poland is boosting interest in the site, which saw its number of visitors increase from 240,000 in 2000 to more than 300,000 last year.

More choices, more competition

A widening array of Web sites is vying to provide tourists and business travelers with information on hotels in their chosen destination, and while the Polish tourist industry has fallen on hard times as the global economy continues to lie low, hotel portals are continuing to grow in popularity.
But the burgeoning number of hotel portals means that online catalogs like hotelsinpoland.com are under increasing competition from a new generation of sites.

According to Marcin Muś, co-owner of Kraków Web design firm Compass Internet Service Network (CISN), creators of the Hotels.Pensions.pl and visit.pl, portals that allow travelers to make credit card reservations over the Internet and give up-to-date information on promotions are now more likely to attract visitors.

“Simply browsing through information about hotels is nothing new and is not particularly useful for customers who then have to call or email their chosen hotel,” Muś said. “Newer portals have more extensive descriptions of hotels, take reservations and offer promotions and discounts, which makes them more attractive.”

One such site is Kraków-based portal visit.pl, an online travel agency launched in July 2001, catering mainly to tourists from outside Poland and offering accommodation in 120 hotels and guesthouses, castles and mansions as well as package tours and tailor-made holidays – all of which can be booked online.

According to Agnieszka Sokołowska, the firm’s director for strategy and development, price agreements with hotels mean that visit.pl can offer its customers discounts on bookings of as much as 70%, ramping up the number of inquiries generated by the site from its current average of 300 inquiries per month to more than 900 in the run-up to the 2002 holiday season.

Straight to the source

While independent hotel portals are growing in sophistication, there is a danger that travelers may bypass them altogether as hotel chains develop their own online reservation facilities. France-based hotel group Accor provides its clients with online credit card booking at 3,500 of its hotels worldwide using its accorhotels.com site, and it would like the site to play a much greater role in sales.

“The site is responsible for 5% of reservations but the group plans to increase this to 25% by 2005,” said Adrianna Mościkowska, head of Accor’s Novotel and Mercure hotel chains in Poland.

CORPORATE COOL – FOR LESS

Michael Frank, Forbes.com    -  Most people traveling on business feel they have to sacrifice pleasant surroundings for low price or a better high-speed connection. That's not the case at the Mondrian in West Hollywood.

Hotel impresario Ian Schrager has once again hired designer Philippe Starck (who also worked on Schrager's Royalton and Paramount hotels in New York, as well as his Delano in Miami) to create the 245-room Mondrian, a hotel that even a CFO could love.

Enter the lobby via 30-foot tall mahogany doors and your eyes literally wander, since from the bank of elevators to the lobby bar, there's almost nothing of any "weight" for them to settle upon. It's like you've entered a Star Trek time warp, or one of your own dreams of heaven. It's not at all unsettling, however, just darned cool.

Head to your room, and more cool awaits. Step into the elevator and a flat-screen monitor on the back wall displays crashing waves, while Ella Fitzgerald or the Chemical Brothers--the track selection gets increasingly hip as the day progresses--serenades your ride up. And if that impresses you, the rooms are even better.

If it's nighttime when you arrive, candles will be lit and a flower or two will be in the vase on the coffee table. The room will collect outside light via the floor-to-ceiling glass wall of windows--and, yes, the windows open, and blinders can shut out every photon should you wish to sleep in. If you want to work, there's a simple, Shaker-style chair and desk, and, of course, a two-line phone with speakerphone mode.

Beds and baths are also spare, but the beds are especially comfortable, with crisp cotton sheets and light wool blankets--and not at all mushy, or covered with something as disquieting as a polyester bedspread.

Downstairs there's a scene of course, with the excellent Asia de Cuba restaurant attracting the town's glitterati and the Sky Bar, which as a guest you can stride into, but for the populace is a by-invite-only affair (meaning you better have sold that script or you're not getting in). We could drop names, but that would be gauche.

Oh yes, and the price? It's $250 a night, and right now, the third night is free. Bounce that one off the raised eyebrows of your corporate bean-counter when he wants you to bed down at the Marriott.

Forbes Fact

Starck designed nearly everything you see at the Mondrian. Ring room service for a toothbrush and the funky teeth cleaner you get will be his design. He has also designed cutlery, candlesticks, lemon squeezers, even televisions (alas, not the one in your room at the Mondrian), and, yes, even a few pasta shapes.

DUSIT THANI HOTEL GROUP AMONGST ASIA’S MOST ADMIRED COMPANIES

The Dusit Thani PCL was amongst Asia’s Most Admired Companies and received Top Ten ranking among Thai companies in the recent Asia’s Most Admired Companies (AMAC) survey organized by Asian Business Magazine. Dusit was the only hotel group in Thailand that received this high honor.

The annual survey conducted among a broad base of CEOs, senior executives and company board members in 9 Asian countries reflects their perceptions of the region’s best companies.

Besides Dusit, the Top Ten Thai firms include Sony, Singapore Airlines, Siam Cement, Thai Farmers Bank, Unilever, Charoen Pokphand, TelecomAsia, McDonald’s and PTT Exploration

Mr. Khampi Suwanarat, Chief Operating Officer of The Dusit Group, remarked that Dusit was very grateful to be consistently highly ranked by AMAC. A major factor for winning this award is the company’s effort to continue improving the range and quality of products and services, against the still widespread global economic downturn. 

Dusit also obtained from AMAC survey the distinction of being in the Top Three hotel brands in the Hotel/Leisure Category.  First and second ranking went to Shilla Hotel and Hyatt Hotels, respectively.

Khun Khampi added that public support and acceptance of Dusit quality products and services have been consistent. However, the company is not resting on its laurels but adheres to a commitment to excellence, in line with its basic emphasis on Thai traditional hospitality and service. Additionally, Dusit Hotels & Resorts became a founding member of the Asian Hotels Alliance (AHA) last year. AHA has a firm commitment to better serve the clients with more than 60 hotels in nearly every city and resort destinations in the region.

Over the years, Dusit has been receiving top magazine survey awards in Asia, Europe and the US. AMAC of Asian Business and the Review 200 of Far Eastern Economic Review Magazine conduct annual company rankings, in which Dusit has consistently received top honors for several consecutive recent years.

SEVENTH YEAR OF GROWTH FOR REZIDOR SAS

Rezidor SAS hospitality has reported its seventh consecutive year of growth in number of hotels and business volume, with 2001 operating revenues up 2% to €379m (£234.4m).
Pre-tax profit was €22m (£13.6m), substantially lower than 2000’s €68m (£42m), however the latter included €31m from property sales.

Occupancy dropped one percentage point from 2000 levels to 68%, while average room rate fell 2% to €105 (£65) and revenue per available room (revPAR) 3% to €71 (£44).

Formerly known as SAS International Hotels, Rezidor SAS operates the Radisson SAS and Malmaison brands and has 160 hotels in operation or under construction in 38 countries.
During 2001 the group opened 10 Radisson SAS hotels: 5 new-builds and 5 converted properties. It currently operates 3 UK hotels under the brand in London, Manchester and Stirlingshire, with a 147-bedroom property due to open in Leeds in April.

The group also operates 5 Malmaison hotels in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle. Another is slated to open in London early next year, while a further is under construction in Birmingham.

Commenting on the results Kurt Ritter, president and CEO of Rezidor SAS, said: ‘Although business growth rates have slowed, the Rezidor SAS trend continues on an upward curve. This is particularly gratifying in a year when we have opened no fewer than 10 new hotels in the face of unusually difficult trading conditions.’

INCOME FOR HOTELS IN SOUTH AFRICA ROSE 6.1% IN DECEMBER

The total income for hotels in South Africa rose with 6.1% to R505.6-million in December last year, compared with the same month in 2000, Statistics SA said yesterday.

The room and bed occupancy rates for December 2001 stood at 52.1 and 38.4% respectively, it said in a statistical release. This represented increases of 4.6% and 4.3% respectively over December 2000.

Increases in the room and bed occupancy rates occurred in seven of the nine provinces and 20 of the 25 tourism regions with the South Coast and Interior region recorded the highest increase — of 11.6% in the room and 12% in the bed occupancy rate.

At the other end of the scale, the Pietermaritzburg and Midlands region had drops of 11.7 and 10.8% respectively.

The highest increases were found in one and two-star hotels, which had a 15.9% rise in the room occupancy rate and a 24.6% increase in the bed occupancy rate.

Three-star hotels had increases of 11 and 4.3% respectively, and five-star hotels decreases of 0.9 and 3.9% in the two categories.

A comparison of the statistics for the whole of 2001 with those of 2000 indicated that the room occupancy rate rose by 1.3% and the bed occupancy rate by 1.1%, the release said.

The total hotel income in 2001 was 1.5% higher than in 2000, income percentages were not adjusted for inflation, it said. - Sapa

FOUR SEASONS NET PLUNGES, OUTLOOK BLEAK

(Reuters) - Luxury hotelier Four Seasons Hotels (FSH) (FS), a barometer of the health of the top-end travel business, reported a drop of more than 75 percent in fourth-quarter profit on Friday and warned that the outlook for the first half remained bleak.

Although the results largely met analysts' expectations, chief executive Isadore Sharp said the fallout of the Sept. 11 attacks on the travel industry "stress tested" Four Seasons "well beyond the limits of any prior economic cycle."

Analysts said luxury hotel chains will suffer this year as low bookings, the uncertain global economic picture and ripples from the attacks will take time to fade.

But Four Seasons shares jumped 7.4 percent, or $2.70, to close at $46.51 on the New York Stock Exchange as investors cheered the company's ability to cut costs, remain profitable and give forecasts that seem encouraging.

On the Toronto Stock Exchange, the shares rose C$5.32, or 7.7 percent, to end at C$74.49.

"We expect the gradual recovery of demand levels to begin in the latter part of 2002," Sharp said as the company revealed slumping vacancy rates for its worldwide properties.

The operator of more than 50 high-end hotels and resorts around the world earned C$9.3 million ($5.8 million), or 27 Canadian cents a share, in the quarter ended Dec. 31. In the fourth quarter of 2000, it earned C$38.5 million, or 97 Canadian cents a share.

Eleven analysts polled by Thomson Financial/First Call had forecast earnings of between 5 cents (8 Canadian cents) and 19 cents (30 Canadian cents) a share.

Revenues slumped 26 percent to C$76.9 million from C$104.1 million in the quarter.

ANALYSTS SURPRISED BUT CAUTIOUS

Analysts said Four Seasons' earnings were stronger than expected, but that the company will suffer more than other hotel chains this year because of its higher prices.

"It's going to be tough. (Four Seasons) will be hit harder but they are showing the same type of recovery patterns," said Joseph Greff, a gaming and lodging analyst at ABN AMRO in New York.

Four Seasons said lower occupancy levels had cut the revenue generated per available room -- a measure of hotel performance -- by about 13 percent in January. That's slightly worse than the 9 percent decline industry-wide.

During the quarter, revenue per available room, on a U.S. dollar basis, fell 28.8 percent in October, 24.3 percent in November and 16.3 percent in December.

Four Seasons warned that it sees first-quarter profit falling 60 percent from year-ago levels, with earnings per share between 19 Canadian cents and 21 Canadian cents before other operating items. But it said it sees full 2002 earnings growing between 8 percent and 10 percent.

ABN AMRO's Greff forecasts Four Seasons to earn around C$1.45 a share in 2002, well below the company's own prediction of between C$1.69 and C$1.74 a share.

"In general, their second quarter (forecast) seems to be aggressive. It appears to be more optimistic than other hotel operators," Greff said.

Sharp said Four Seasons plans to add five new hotels to its portfolio in 2002 and nine in 2003.

"We are entering 2002 with the strongest balance sheet in the company's history," he said.

Four Seasons' shares have recovered from a steep fall following the September attacks and are now about 2 percent above Sept. 11 levels. They have underperformed Fairmont Hotels (FHR), whose shares are up 21 percent in the same period.

FIERCE COMPETITION FOR MIDDLE EAST HOTEL "OSCARS"

The high standards of hotel facilities, service and design throughout the Middle East have been reflected in over 110 individual entries, from 40 different five-star hotels, to the DEPA Middle East Hotel Awards 2002.

With judging due to take place at the Semiramis Inter-Continental Hotel in Cairo on 18th & 19th February, the international judging panel faces a tough task in deciding who will walk away with the top prizes at the Gala Dinner and Awards ceremony being held at the Semiramis Inter-Continental Hotel on 18th April 2002.

Likened to the recently-announced movie Oscars, the Middle East hotel "Oscars" have drawn entries from all the leading five-star hotels in the region, with competition being particularly fierce in the categories for Outstanding Hotel of the Year, Restaurant Innovation of the Year, Conference Hotel of the Year and Business Hotel of the Year.

Hisham El Sharkawy, Area General Manager Egypt, DEPA Hotel Interiors, said: "Sponsoring this event gives us an opportunity to witness the innovation and creativity within the region's hotels, and allows us to monitor trends and new developments throughout the Middle East. The standards set at the inaugural event in Dubai last year were high, but the content and professionalism of the award entries for Cairo 2002 surpassed all our expectations. I do not envy the judges their task in choosing the winners."

The judging panel of international experts, who will be in Cairo on 18th & 19th February for two days of extensive judging, comprises:-

Stephen Head, Vice President, Lausanne Hospitality Consulting
Mohamed Buzizi, CEO, Bahrain Hotels Company
Russell Kett, Managing Director, HVS International, London
Stuart Scher, Chairman, Taylor Nelson Sofres Hospitality & Leisure, London
Daniel During, Managing Partner, Thomas Klein International, Dubai
Denis Johnson, Regional VP Sales & Marketing, Six Continents Hotels, Cairo
Samir Daqqaq, Regional VP Global Sales, Marriott International, Dubai
Jean-Paul Herzog, Regional VP Operations, Hilton International, Cairo
Tony Chi, President, Tony Chi & Associates, New York
Michael Herriot, Managing Director, Virgin Hotels, London
Tarek Mansour, Senior Partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Cairo

They will judge the following categories:-

1) Outstanding Hotel of the Year 2002
2) New Hotel of the Year 2002 (opened after January 2001)
3) Hotel Design of the Year 2002 (refurbishment or extension)
4) Leisure Hotel of the Year 2002
5) Business Hotel of the Year 2002
6) Environmentally-Friendly Hotel of the Year 2002
7) Standard Hotel Room of the Year 2002
8) Executive Floor of the Year 2002
9) Hotel Advertising Campaign of the Year 2002
10) Hotel PR Campaign of the Year 2002
11) Hotel Group Employer of the Year 2002
12) Hotel Employer of the Year 2002
13) Conference Hotel of the Year 2002
14) Hotel Restaurant Innovation of the Year 2002
15) Hotelier of the Year 2002
16) Floating Hotel of the Year 2002 (open to Nile cruise boats)

The nominations will be announced on Monday 25th February, with the shortlisted hotels in each category then having to wait until the "Oscars" style Gala Dinner and Awards ceremony on the evening of Thursday April 18th to find out whether they have won or not.

A magnificent Gala Dinner is being planned by Clement Soustra, the Executive Chef at the Semiramis Inter-Continental Hotel in Cairo, as part of the awards ceremony. Soustra commented: "This is a real challenge, as well as an honour, for us. Although we are used to cooking for heads of state, royalty and VIPs, this is the only hotel industry event of its kind in the Middle East, and our clients on 18th April will be our peers - other hoteliers and suppliers, as well as hotel owners, all of whom are used to eating in five-star hotels throughout the Middle East and the rest of the world, and are accustomed to hotels excelling at food and beverage. Our brief from the organisers and sponsors is to 'wow' them, and the team and I have been devising a culinary delight that will remain a closely-guarded secret until the night."

The gala dinner and awards ceremony at the Semiramis Inter-Continental Hotel in Cairo on 18th April will be attended by over 300 senior professionals from the Middle East and international hotel industry. Gianaclist, the well-known Egyptian wine supplier, will be offering a variety of exciting wines throughout the night, and use the event to launch their new Sparkling Wine, which will be used to toast the winners.

For further information contact: Mirage Global Events. Tel: + 357 2442 7491 Fax: + 357 9946 5133 email hotelawards@intelligence-me.com 

PUTTING SOME BUZZ INTO SPACE HOTELS

Space-Travel.com  -   Buzz Aldrin, the second man to walk on the moon, is leading a team of researchers, including engineers at Purdue University, to design a new class of spacecraft that would serve as orbiting hotels perpetually cruising between Earth and Mars.

The "cycler" spacecraft would constantly ferry people and materials between the two planets, enabling earthlings to explore, commercially develop and eventually colonize the Red Planet.

"We believe these regular planetary flybys would create an entirely new economic and philosophic approach to space exploration," the researchers wrote in a December report prepared for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

"Reliable, reusable and dependable cycler transportation can be the key to carry humanity into the next great age of exploration, expansion, settlement and multi-planetary commerce."

Aldrin is working with a team of researchers, including professors and engineering graduate students at Purdue, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Texas. The former astronaut is an engineer by training and holds a doctorate from MIT.

"We are going to put in a proposal for a more detailed study to narrow down some of the choices of the different kinds of cyclers and decide which ones seem to fit into a very nice operational mission," Aldrin said.

Modified versions of the space shuttle's external fuel tank might be used as building units for cyclers. The tank ordinarily is jettisoned during shuttle flights, and it burns up in the atmosphere. However, the shuttle's external fuel tank could be modified, adding two additional empty tanks atop the existing fuel tank.

Instead of being jettisoned, the modified external tank assembly could then be carried by the shuttle all the way to low-earth orbit, where the dry tanks could be separated from the main tank and used to construct the spacecraft.

Cyclers would take advantage of the gravitational forces that are exerted by the sun, the planets and their moons, which provide "gravity assists" to passing spacecraft.

As a spacecraft travels close to a planet, its flight path is bent, causing it to whip around the planet while boosting its speed. The path is commonly called a "slingshot" trajectory, which enables a spacecraft to achieve the proper speed and heading.

"The cycler essentially is in orbit around the sun and makes regular flybys of Earth and Mars," said team member James Longuski, a professor of aeronautics and astronautics at Purdue. "Once you put your vehicle into a cycler orbit, it continues on its own momentum, going back and forth between Earth and Mars. You may need to carry some propellant for an occasional boost, but it's pretty much a free trip after that."

In their report to JPL, researchers said a cycler would practically fly itself and "become a permanent, man-made inner solar system companion of Earth and Mars, tapping the free and inexhaustible 'fuel supply' of gravitational forces to maintain orbit. Like an ocean liner on a regular trade route, a cycler will glide perpetually along its beautifully predictable orbit."

However, it is difficult to precisely design cycler trajectories because of the complex orbital relationship between Earth and Mars as the planets travel around the sun. While the Earth orbits the sun in a nearly circular route, Mars' orbit is oblong, or elliptical. That means the distance between Mars and the Earth varies dramatically depending on Mars' orbital position around the sun, complicating the design of spacecraft trajectories between the two planets.

"If they were both in circular orbits, any cycler that you would design would repeat perfectly over and over again," Longuski said. "Mars' orbit is somewhat eccentric. That throws a curve ball into the whole design."

Determining the precise path for cyclers requires engineers highly skilled in celestial mechanics who use mathematical techniques to create and evaluate numerous possible trajectories, eventually arriving at the best choice.

Longuski and his students have previously designed trajectories for an unmanned spacecraft to Jupiter's moon Europa, which is tentatively scheduled for launch in 2006. The team also designed trajectories for a hypothetical manned mission to Mars.

"Some day, people will be going to Mars on a regular basis," Longuski said. "Most people are convinced that we are going to do this; the only question is when."

The cycler spacecraft would have to encounter Mars and Earth at precisely the right distance and speed. If a cycler approached Mars too fast or at the wrong distance, too much fuel would be needed for steering rockets and it would be more difficult for "taxi" spacecraft to dock with the cyclers as they sped by.

A cycler might fly past the Earth at about 21,000 kilometers per hour, or roughly 13,000 miles per hour. Small taxi spacecraft carrying people and supplies would have to rendezvous with the speeding cycler.

"This is sort of like a bus that doesn't stop," Longuski said. "When it comes by, you have to run alongside of it and grab on. "

The outbound trip to Mars would take six to eight months.

"Then, when you get to Mars, you get in the taxi and de-orbit down to the planet," said Longuski, who is working with Purdue graduate students to design "outbound" and "inbound" trajectories, or the trips from Earth to Mars and from Mars to Earth.

"These cyclers would be like space hotels," Longuski said. "They would provide the usual creature comforts."

Cyclers would rotate slowly to create artificial gravity and prevent the debilitating effects of weightlessness on its passengers. The spacecraft also would be roomy enough to make the trip tolerable. The earliest versions of the space hotels might accommodate up to 50 passengers.

One cycler would not be sufficient: By the time that craft arrived at Mars, the two planets would have moved much farther apart, making a return trip impractically long. Rather, a family of perhaps three cyclers, continuously providing outbound and inbound flights, would ensure that passengers could get to Earth and Mars within a reasonable amount of time, Longuski said.

While the Purdue engineers are working on the interplanetary celestial mechanics of getting back and forth between Earth and Mars, researchers at the University of Texas and MIT are helping with other critical aspects of the trip, such as getting a cycler into the proper position to begin its trip to Mars and learning how to design the taxis.

"We have to look at the configuration of those taxis and how much energy will be needed to intercept the cyclers," Aldrin said.

Perhaps the first cyclers could fly around 2018, he said.

"The first mission will be more conservative, and it will have more safety supports until we are sure we know what we are doing," Aldrin said. 

ARGENTINE TOURISM PINS HOPES ON DEVALUED PESO

New York Times  -  Until early January, Argentina was perhaps the most expensive country in Latin America for tourists. But it has become dramatically cheaper as a result of an almost 50 percent devaluation of the peso, which for more than a decade had been fixed at one to one with the American dollar.

"Our economic situation continues to be complicated and our image abroad is not favorable, but the prices are now much more attractive, and we hope that will help overcome whatever hesitation foreign travelers may have," said Marco Palacios, president of the Argentine Association of Tourism and Travel Agencies.

The currency devaluation and the resignation of President Fernando de la Rúa on Dec. 20 were preceded by several days of mass street demonstrations and even food riots in working-class suburbs of the capital that left 27 people dead. On Jan. 3, the State Department issued an announcement cautioning American visitors that "the political, social and security situation is likely to remain fluid" and that they "should avoid large public gatherings."

The statement was still in effect at press time on Feb. 11, but Argentine officials argue that it is no longer necessary and say that they are lobbying Washington to rescind it. "The end of December was difficult, but that has all been overcome," said Daniel Scioli, the government's Secretary of Tourism. "Social peace has returned, and Argentines have their arms open wide to receive foreign visitors."

Demonstrations continue periodically here in the capital, but they take place at specified times in two locations (on the squares in front of Congress and the Presidential Palace) and are not anti-American in character. There has been no unrest reported in the areas that have traditionally been tourist favorites: Patagonia, including the ski resort and lake district of Bariloche, and the Iguaçú Falls, on the northern border with Brazil and Paraguay.

"I was here right around Christmas and found this place so expensive and so chaotic that I decided I'd be better off hanging out in Brazil for a while," said Ellen Marchese, a Pennsylvanian on a yearlong backpacker's tour of Latin America, as she waited outside a currency exchange on Calle Florida in Buenos Aires late last month. "But the situation seems to have calmed down now, and it's amazing how much cheaper everything seems."

To replace the "one peso equals one dollar" policy that had been in place since 1991, Argentina initially opted for a complicated dual exchange rate: 1.40 pesos to the dollar for foreign trade and a free floating rate for most other transactions, including tourism. On Feb. 3, however, a decision was made to simplify things by abandoning the fixed rate and letting the peso float, or find its value on the open market.

During the first few weeks after abandoning the one-to-one policy, the floating exchange rate was running as high as two pesos to the dollar, making the cost of a restaurant meal in early February half of what it was barely a month before. But economists foresee an even greater slippage of the peso throughout 2002, with many of them predicting that the Argentine currency will end the year trading at about 2.70 to the dollar.

Of course, the end of the one peso, one dollar system means that American visitors must once again translate prices from pesos. Exchange rates now fluctuate daily, too, so to get the best rate for their money, visitors should check the financial pages of the Buenos Aires Herald, an English-language paper published here.

In addition, the collapse of the Argentine economy has led several provinces to issue bonds that are used as an alternative legal tender. When they make change, owners of stores and restaurants often try to foist this scrip, which can be easily counterfeited, on unsuspecting tourists. Complaints have been common, so under no circumstances should a visitor accept the bonds, known as patacones or lecops, as change: always insist on receiving pesos and only pesos.

Another consequence of the devaluation has been to force Argentines to stay at home. A strong peso had encouraged them to become inveterate travelers to Europe and the United States; and the money spent by Argentines abroad far exceeded that spent by visitors to Argentina: $5.5 billion versus just over $3 billion in 2000, according to Mr. Palacios.

But the average Argentine can no longer afford foreign travel, and with the Southern Hemisphere summer vacation season in full swing, that means local resorts and attractions, such as Mar del Plata, are more crowded than they have been in recent years, especially on weekends. "There are plenty of empty rooms, but in terms of both availability and prices, the best deals are to be found during the week," said Oscar Ghezzi, president of the national hotel association.