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Newsletter - December 2, 2002

   

Six Continents under fire

Shareholders protest at hotels directors' share options package

The Guardian  -   Six Continents was last Friday  locked in talks with angry shareholders who want the company to drop a executive share option package at its hotels division, which is to demerge next year.

It is the latest flashpoint in a continuing row between UK institutional investors and London-listed multinationals determined to offer their executives top US rates of pay.

Earlier this week, GlaxoSmithKline bowed to pressure from investors over a proposed £20m pay deal for its chief executive, Jean-Pierre Garnier.

Six Continents' finance director, Richard North - who has been named chief executive-elect of the hotels group - is now at the centre of the row over an options scheme that could net him three times his basic salary.

The company said the planned package - for eight executives - complies with guidelines from the Association of British Insurers on international company remuneration, adding that 75% of profits from its hotels division were generated outside the UK.

Nevertheless, some institutional investors remain concerned about spiralling executive pay.

A spokesperson for one major investor last night said that activist shareholders had not yet resolved their gripe with Six Continents.

As well as Mr North, other executives to enjoy the options deal are thought to include Richard Solomons, who is soon to be installed as finance director, and a proposed senior management team of David Bland, Richard Hartman and Stevan Porter.

Shareholders are thought to be angered in part by a shift in performance criteria for executives. Under Six Continent's present pay deal, an earnings per share target must be reached before the options can be exercised.

If the new scheme is approved, options will be granted when the target is met. There will be no restriction on when the options are exercised.

"This is by no means a US deal," a spokesperson for the company said. "It is - if you like - just off the coast of Ireland."

The latest row at Six Continents is not the first time its board has crossed swords with shareholders. Earlier this year a leaked letter from fund manager Hermes described the company's acquisitive track record as "value destroying", and urged the return of surplus funds to shareholders.

The company had announced plans to demerge the hotel and soft drinks operations from its pubs business by October - returning almost £1bn to shareholders.

Source: The Guardian  

Accor cancel French Caribbean shutdown

 (AFP) - The French hotel chain Accor has dropped a plan to shut down its operations in Guadeloupe and is prepared to begin negotiations with the French government on its future prospects there, a French minister said Thursday. 

We are talking (to Accor representatives) and they are ready to return to the table on condition that things improve, especially the social climate," secretary of state for tourism Leon Bertrand told the television network France 2.

"The Accor group no longer plans to cease operations in Guadeloupe."

Accor threatened earlier this month to pull out of Guadeloupe, a French possession in the Caribbean, in response to labor and social unrest there.

Bertrand noted that the French government was in the process of drafting legislation aimed partially at galvanizing the tourist industry in Guadeloupe and other nearby French possessions, which is critical to their development.

The bill would exempt real estate restoration from taxation, ease social charges and provide training for tourism employees.

Source:  expatica.com

Hong Kong sets more records as October 2003 visitor arrivals soar to 1.58 million

AsiaTravelTips.com  -  For the third time this year, visitor arrivals in Hong Kong have set a new monthly record, the Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB) said today (28 November). October arrivals totalled 1,584,563, a 37.2% increase on the same month in 2001 and well ahead of the previous record of 1.50 million set in August.

Once again the main driving force was the Mainland China market, which also broke the record set two months earlier by contributing 669,828 visitors, a 68.4% year-on-year increase. However, all short-haul and long-haul markets showed healthy increases in October, most recording double-digit growth. 

For the first ten months of 2002 to date, total arrivals have now increased by 18.2% to 13,327,716. With two peak tourism months of the year still remaining, this is not far short of the record 13.7 million achieved for the whole of 2001.

HKTB Executive Director Clara Chong observed that although the percentage growth seen in October was unusually high, as arrivals in the corresponding month last year were depleted by the impact of September's terrorist attacks, the hard numbers were indisputable.

"It is not only the Mainland market that is doing well - all our long-haul markets are now performing above pre-9/11 levels, as is South & Southeast Asia, while North Asia is getting there," she commented. "It is particularly encouraging that arrival figures appear to be holding up well despite the further impact of the Bali bombing, which occurred in the first half of October."

Ms Chong noted that the HKTB's monthly arrivals figures were compiled strictly in accordance with the standards laid down by the World Tourism Organization (WTO) to ensure fair and accurate comparison with other destinations.

Analysis by Markets

Of the 669,828 visitors from Mainland China recorded in October, some 255,000 arrived in the first 10 days of the month alone, coinciding with the "Golden Week" National Day holiday. While there were fewer tour groups than for the previous Golden Week holiday, there were more individual and business travellers over the period. October is one of Hong Kong's busiest months for trade fairs, with events such as the Hong Kong Electronics Fair, Electronic Asia, the Hong Kong International Lighting Fair and the Asia-Pacific Leather Fair all attracting substantial numbers of business visitors from the Mainland.

Following recent relaxation of the requirements for business visas, there has been a 35% increase in Mainland visitors to exhibitions in Hong Kong this year.

All other markets also showed strong growth in October. Arrivals from The Americas, which were especially affected last year by the September terrorist attacks, jumped 37.0% to 140,583, with the United States itself showing growth of 40.8%.

Arrivals from Europe, Africa & the Middle East rose 23.8% to 160,187, while those from Australia, New Zealand & South Pacific were 18.5% ahead at 39,163.

In the short-haul markets, North Asia led the way with 24.9% growth compared with the same month in 2001, contributing 148,316 arrivals . This included 109,610 visitors from Japan, a 29.5% increase. 

Arrivals from South & Southeast Asia were 25.3% up, totalling 170,278. There were especially strong performances from Thailand (26,553 arrivals, +43.6%), India (21,462, +29.5%) and the Philippines (29,191, +20.4%). 

Taiwan remains Hong Kong's second largest source market with 215,486 arrivals in October, a 9.0% growth. 

Cumulative figures for the first ten months of 2002 show Mainland China leading the way with a 49.9% increase to 5,373,384 arrivals, the first time any single market has surpassed the five million mark. Arrivals from South & Southeast Asia are showing a 7.3% increase, followed by Europe, Africa & the Middle East (+6.4%), The Americas (+5.1%), Australia, New Zealand & South Pacific (+3.7%) and North Asia (+2.0%).

Only Taiwan (-0.3%) has currently seen fewer arrivals than in the first ten months of 2001, although it is expected to move back into positive growth before the end of 2002. 

Same-Day Visitors

Since the October 2000 figures, the HKTB has published a monthly breakdown of "overnight" visitors (defined by the WTO as those who stay in Hong Kong for one night or more) and "same day" visitors (those who leave for another destination on the same day as arrival). The WTO defines "international" visitors as including both groups. This is a significant issue in Hong Kong because of its growing status as a regional transport hub; in particular, a substantial proportion of visitors from Taiwan are business people who continue by land or sea to other destinations in the Pearl River Delta.

Monthly publication of these figures helps Hong Kong's tourism industry understand and plan for this phenomenon. It should be noted that "same day" arrivals only include those visitors who actually pass through Immigration and spend time in Hong Kong; it does not include those who are purely in transit at Hong Kong International Airport.

During October there was a slight decrease in the percentage of visitors staying for one night or longer, which fell to 62.3% from 63.2% in the same month last year. The remaining 37.7% continued to other destinations on the same day.

Taiwan visitors continue to be the least likely to stay overnight, with only 21.1% doing so in October. On the other hand, 79.8% of visitors from The Americas, 77.5% of those from Australia, New Zealand & South Pacific and 72.6% of those from Europe, Africa & the Middle East stayed for at least one night.

For the first ten months of the year to date, 64.2% of all visitors have stayed for one night or longer, a marginal decrease from the 64.5% recorded in the same period in 2001.

Hotel Occupancy

Average hotel room occupancy across all categories was 85% in October, compared with only 76% achieved in the same month in 2001. Top tariff hotels performed especially well, achieving average occupancy of 88%, the highest of any category, boosted by the large number of business visitors coming to Hong Kong for major trade fairs and conventions. In contrast, these hotels were among the worst hit by the post-9/11 downturn last year, achieving only 71% occupancy in October 2001. 

The improvement in occupancy, however, was also reflected across all other categories of hotels and tourist guest houses, and across all different districts of Hong Kong.

For the ten months of the year to date, average occupancy stands at 83%, compared with 78% in the same period of 2001. While hotel operators were able to achieve significantly improved room rates in October, the cumulative trend remains downward, with average achieved rates having fallen 7.8% to HK$706 compared with the first ten months of last year. 

Source: AsiaTravelTips.com

Central America Avoids Tourist Crisis

eTurbo.com  -  Central America has overcome the crisis in the tourism industry caused by the Sept. 11 attack, despite a global recession in the industry, a world tourism organization chief said on Wednesday. World Tourism Organization Secretary General Francesco Frangialli said the tourism crisis affected main resort regions in the western hemisphere, but not in Central America.

Frangialli made the remarks at the opening session of the World Tourism Organization's 4th Forum for Local Congresses and Administrations. More than 300 delegates from 40 countries were participating the two- day forum. They would discuss ways to maintain sustainable development in the tourism sector, prevent environmental deterioration and obtain long-term economic benefits.

Frangialli said that following the Sept. 11 attacks, tourism diminished 6 percent in general in the western hemisphere, but in Central America it grew by 4 percent in 2001, with 4.4 million visitors and a total revenue exceeding three billion US dollars.

Frangialli said another tourist area not seriously effected by the crisis was Eastern Asia and the Pacific, with an average growth of 5.5 percent. He warned that if tourist infrastructure was not well cared for, growth in the sector might suffer from pressure on vulnerable environments, demographic growth in cities, lack of means in transportation, and an increase in water and energy consumption.

Source: eTurbo.com

Chinese Citizens Be Able to Travel in Europe Next Year

eTurbo.com   -   News from French tourism promoting activities held in Shanghai claims that the course of Europe becoming Chinese tourism destination shall be expedited. Experts predict that once access is granted, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou will be the first three cities to gain the access.

According to News Evening, official form France Tourism Board says that EU will take joint action in the first half of next year to exploit China passenger source market. The promotion is directly related to making Europe the tourism destination of Chinese citizens. It is said that although Germany had already been confirmed as a tourism destination last year, no tour group has been sent there yet due to restrictions from relevant regulations of EU. Official from France Tourism Board indicates that EU is united as a whole and shall become the tourism destination for Chinese citizens as a whole. Thus it will be more convenient for both official process and tourists, who can travel several countries at one time.

In recent years, tourism sections from France and other European countries have been holding promotions in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou every year, expecting to expedite the course that Chinese citizens could visit Europe earlier. Reporter was told that there were 20 members in the French delegation to Shanghai involving the six elements of tour, eating, accommodation, transportation, travel, shopping and recreation'. It is said that China Committee has been established in Paris, which has 25 subordinating enterprises involving tour, leisure activities, entertainment, shopping, hotel and transportation. The committee claims 'We are specialized in working for the tourists attracted to Paris. Each company is making special arrangement to build a comfort and excellent reception'

Yangtze Evening reports that Germany will be officially opened to Chinese citizens for personal travel purpose with effect from December 1 and thus become the first tourism destination opened in EU to China.

Source: eTurbo.co  

Are You Making the Best Use of Your Time?

By Christina Morfeld 

Whether you are a business owner, manager, or individual contributor, chances are that you've felt overwhelmed at one time or another –- or perhaps you're in a constant state of inundation! In fact, you've probably read at least a few of the terrific time management articles that have been written. While most provide strategies for using "to do" lists and managing information overload (an important skill these days!), this article takes a slightly different approach.

Ask yourself the following question:

Instead of grumbling about how "swamped" you are, have you ever stopped to consider why you spend your time the way that you do?

Techniques for handling three possible answers to this question –- tradition, requests for assistance, and social calls –- will be presented in this article.

Tradition

When performing routine tasks, we often give little thought to the "bigger picture." This holds true whether we inherited the responsibility from a predecessor or have been doing it ourselves for years. After all, the procedure made perfect sense when first established! Circumstances may have since changed, however, resulting in an outdated –- or even unnecessary –- activity.

Examine your current tasks in relation to the following four questions:

  • Why?
    A helpful way to determine whether you must continue to perform a certain activity is to consider what the consequence of not performing it might be.
  • How?
    When developing alternate techniques to perform an activity that cannot be eliminated, it's important not to limit your options to those that are only slightly different than the status quo. Be creative. You might find that the same results can be achieved –- or even improved –- with a time-effective method that is radically different than your current one.
  • Who?
    Perhaps you are unable to accomplish as much as you'd like because you take on more than can reasonably be handled by one person. If this is the case, you may wish to consider delegating some of your work to others.
  • When?
    Unfortunately, some routine tasks are unavoidable. On a positive note, because they generally do not require concentration or large blocks of uninterrupted time, there is no real need to schedule them. Instead, perform them during idle time, such as between meetings or while on hold during a telephone call.

Requests for assistance

Like most people, you probably accept every "favor" that is asked of you. Rather than automatically saying "yes" to a new project, follow these four steps:

  1. Listen carefully to the request; be sure that you have a complete understanding of what is being asked of you.
  2. If your decision is to decline the project, say so politely but firmly. If you are unsure whether to accept the assignment, say that you need time to think about it. Only commit to the task if you are absolutely certain you can do it without causing the rest of your responsibilities to suffer.
  3. If you have either turned down the project or postponed your decision, give reasons. It is generally sufficient to say: "I have some other commitments that may interfere." You are less likely to offend the person making the request if you explain your inability to accept the assignment.
  4. Offer alternative ways in which the person's needs can be met.

You should by no means say "no" to every request, and, of course, should consider the circumstances –- particularly who is making the request and the consequences of declining –- before rejecting any assignment.

Social calls

It's inevitable. Co-workers drop by your office or workspace whenever it's convenient for them without regard for your schedule or workload. And even if the purpose of the visit is work-related, it can quickly turn personal.

The first step in beating this time-waster is to anticipate and take preventive action. Some approaches for reducing the number of unplanned visits by others are:

  • Providing your staff with the authority to handle typical or routine situations as they see fit, only calling on you in circumstances that are out of the ordinary;
  • Arranging your furniture so that your desk cannot be easily seen from the doorway;
  • Removing extra chairs from your workspace (or placing papers on top of them);
  • Openly communicating your preference for scheduled appointments; and
  • Limiting your "open door" policy, or availability to answer questions, to a specific time period each day.

Sometimes, unfortunately, people just don't get the hint! Luckily, there are tactics to ensure that unplanned visits are short and to the point. Above all else, resist the urge to put down your pen and lean back in your chair, signaling that you welcome the interruption and are in the mood for small talk!

  • Immediately stand up when the person enters your workspace and remain standing for the duration of his or her visit.
  • Politely ask the visitor "How can I help you?" instead of "How are you?" or "What's up?"
  • Tell the individual you have only a few free minutes and suggest scheduling a mutually convenient time to continue the conversation –- in his or her office where you can control the length of the meeting. If the visit was purely social, the person will be highly unlikely to take you up on that offer.
  • Use concluding phrases such as "I think we've covered everything" and "If that's all, I have other pressing business to get back to."
  • When a particular person repeatedly interrupts you, make it a point not to look up from what you are doing. If you consistently continue to read, write, or type when he or she visits, the message that you are too busy for (or not interested in) chit-chat will very quickly get across.

After implementing some of the strategies described in this article, take a moment to revisit the question posed earlier: Why do you spend your time the way that you do? Your answer is now more likely to be focused on you –- your goals, your career, and your success –- and less on outside factors and other people. Isn't the point of time management, after all, to make the items on your "wish list" a reality?

Copyright © 2000-2002 Christina Morfeld and Affinity Business Communications, LLC. Originally published by Suite101.com. All rights reserved.

About the Author:

Christina Morfeld is president of Affinity Business Communications, a provider of high-quality instructional design, technical writing, and content development solutions. Whether writing to instruct, inform, or persuade, our work is reader-focused, benefits-oriented, and results-driven.

Contact: 1-203-445-9964 or info@affinitybizcomm.com, or visit the website at http://www.affinitybizcomm.com to learn how to increase your firm's sales and effectiveness!

The Japanese Center – An Innovative  New Service from The Dusit Group 

Dusit and Royal Princess Hotels & Resorts proudly inaugurates The Japanese Center, which ushers in major new improvements for all Japanese business and leisure clients, customers and friends.

The Japanese Center of Dusit and Royal Princess seeks and provides integrated and innovative ways to serve all customers of Dusit and Royal Princess. The Japanese Center is your passport to fast, efficient and reliable services, combined with the introduction of Dusit.Com Hotel and Travel Network in Japanese Language, to speed up and facilitate all communications in Japanese.   

With affable Japanese staff and complete up-to-date facilities, The Japanese Center works closely in all areas of marketing services and support for the customers and the entire Dusit and Royal Princess chain of hotels.

Dusit and Royal Princess are Thailand’s leading hotels and resorts operator, with world-renowned properties such as The Dusit Thani in Bangkok and Dusit Resort Pattaya, Dusit Resort & Polo Club Hua Hin, Santiburi Dusit Resort in Samui, and Dusit Laguna Phuket in major destinations in Thailand. Dusit’s portfolio outside Thailand includes Dusit Balikpapan and Dusit Mangga Dua, Jakarta in Indonesia, Dusit Hotel Nikko in Manila, Philippines, Dusit Dubai in United Arab Emirates and will soon take over Dusit Inya Lake Resort, Yangon, the latest addition and first Dusit Hotel Member in Myanmar

For its part, Royal Princess has gained much acclaim for first class City Hotels including Royal Princess Larn Luang, Pathumwan Princess, , Grand China Princess, Royal Princess Srinakarin and Bel-Aire Princess in Bangkok, and in strategic locations throughout Thailand you’ll get the finest hotel accommodation at Royal Princess Chiang Mai,  Royal Princess Korat, Charoen Thani Princess in Khon Kaen, Royal Princess Narathiwat and Royal Princess Ranong.

In relation to Dusit and Royal Princess efforts to boost business and tourism from Japan as well as Japanese expatriates, it can be noted that latest statistics quote the figure of 1.2 million Japanese tourist arrivals to Thailand, ranking it at the top of by-country incoming tourists. On top of that, user ship of the Internet is estimated at 55 million in Japan alone, roughly half the total population.

As such, there exists the great potential for increasing the number of Japanese tourists to Thailand, which is a great challenge to The Japanese Center of Dusit and Royal Princess.

Therefore, the Japanese Dusit.Com will be well positioned and developed to cope with the rapidly increasing demand and needs for making reservations, inquiries, correspondence and so on by email and spreading information promptly through enews and travel-related advice available on the Japanese Dusit. Com.

More importantly, a new facility, the Dusit.Com Hotel & Travel Network in localized, easy-to-understand Japanese language will go a long way in making contacts, reservations and all kinds of communications between Dusit and Royal Princess and the clients fast, easy and most convenient for all parties concerned.

Dusit.Com features both hotel and travel information, and as such delivers many unique kinds of services and useful information to all users, now appearing in English and the new Japanese version.

In addition, telephone, fax and email can all be done fast and easy as well through the Japanese Center with native Japanese-speaking staff.

The Japanese Center would also like to take this auspicious occasion to thank all clients, well wishers and friends for their continued support and patronage to Dusit and Royal Princess Hotels & Resorts.

Dusit Hotels & Resorts has 6 deluxe hotels in Thailand and 5 overseas properties. Royal Princess Hotels & Resorts operate 10 first class hotels in key destinations throughout Thailand.

Key Objectives and Purposes of The Japanese Center

At A Glance

To sum up, the objectives of The Japanese Center of Dusit and Royal Princess Hotels & Resorts can be enumerated as follows:

·         To deal with all issues and related ones in the areas of Marketing & Sales, including promotions, reservations, support services, E-business and others.

·         To increase awareness of Dusit and Royal Princess Hotels & Resorts in the Japanese market, at the same time to augment business into hotels in Dusit Group.

·         To establish speedy and direct contacts minimizing any misunderstanding through the use of Japanese language from overseas clients via the Internet.

·         As such, Telephone, Fax, Email and other means of communication will mostly be handled in Japanese by The Japanese Center staff who are native Japanese speakers.

·         To perform other marketing and sales follow-ups, if necessary.

·         To access the reservation system directly, and personally arrange service needs for guests.

·         To facilitate the growing demand for reservations of the 1st Devarana Spa at The Dusit Thani/Bangkok, the 2nd at newly opened Devarana at Dusit Resort/Pattaya and the 3rd to open in mid s2003 at Dusit Resort and Polo Club/Hua-Hin.

·         To establish good relations with the Japanese community in Thailand, serving as a role model to respect and rely on.

·         To distribute Japanese Dusit enews, and for that matter send any information by email as well.

·         To develop and expand email addresses listings for Dusit and Royal Princess marketing and sales activities.   

About Dusit Group

The Dusit Group comprises the two prestigious brands of Dusit and Royal Princess Hotels & Resorts. Dusit offers deluxe accommodation in major destinations throughout Thailand and overseas portfolio including Indonesia, the Philippines, U.A.E. and now Myanmar. Royal Princess has 10 first class hotel properties strategically located throughout Thailand.

Chefs Unite Against Fast Food

Some 300 chefs from across the globe met in Cancun, Mexico in an effort to preserve the culinary traditions and styles of each of their regions and oppose the growing popularity of fast food Wednesday. The anti- fast food campaign was launched during the Second International Chefs Congress, which is being held at the Caribbean resort of Cancun, in Quintana Roo state. Participants agreed that the culinary arts play a major role for attracting tourists and also diversify a tourism market, combining it with each region's unique cultural traditions and attractions.

At the start of the conference, the president of the International Chefs Association, Louis Perrote, revealed a list of the world's best cuisines according a panel of culinary experts. Topping the list was France, followed by Spain, China and Japan, which was praised for preserving its rich culinary traditions despite globalization. Host country, Mexico, came in fifth place.

According to Perrote, Latin American countries have been able to preserve their rich culinary traditions in large part because they are still developing. The United States, meanwhile, owes its success in the culinary arts to its melting-pot population of multiple cultures, he noted. Quintana Roo Deputy Tourism Secretary Sergio Gonzalez said Mexico's "cocina" is an important factor for drawing tourists.

The conference, which will come to a close on Thursday, has drawn chefs from Spain, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Cuba, Costa Rica, Canada, France, Panama, Peru, Brazil, Switzerland, Uruguay, Paraguay, Colombia and Ecuador, among other countries.

Florida’s Travel Industry Still Fragile

The health of Florida's $50 billion tourism industry is going to be determined as much by Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda as by Mickey Mouse, Spider-Man or Shamu.

The threat of war with Iraq, further terrorist attacks, and plunging consumer confidence have created an uncertainty in Orlando, the heart of the state's tourism industry. Such angst has not been seen in a decade, experts say.

"There is a pretty fair degree of anxiety among the population which tends to depress one's enthusiasm for travel," said Harris Rosen, who owns six hotels on International Drive, Orlando's busiest tourist corridor.

There are signs, though, that the worst is over from the freefall that the tourism industry experienced after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando and SeaWorld Orlando currently are hiring about 2,200 permanent and temporary workers in anticipation of the Christmas holiday season, the busiest time of the year for Orlando's theme parks.

Theme park workers are getting scheduled for overtime like they haven't been in months. The parks broke records and had to close because of overwhelming crowds last Easter, a good sign for the upcoming Christmas season.

Theme park operators are optimistic about the coming weeks. "Just like children waiting for Santa Claus, we're waiting for a wonderful holiday season," said Disney spokeswoman Marilyn Waters.

But signs of weakness still abound.

Rosen expects Thanksgiving week to be his worst in 28 years and expects Christmas week to be as poor. His hotels have always sold out during Thanksgiving week, but they're only expecting 50 percent occupancy this year, even though he's offering a room rate of $29.95 at four of his hotels.

"It has kind of continued from 9-11 and really hasn't changed, although there have been momentary signs of life followed by longer periods of gloom and doom," Harris said. "This September, October and November were worst than last September, October and November."

Other signs point to trouble.

Traffic at Orlando International Airport for the year was down 10 percent through September, hurt primarily by the 24 percent decline in international visitors.

The occupancy rate of metro Orlando's 105,000 hotel rooms was 64 percent during the first week in November, a significant dip from pre-Sept. 11 levels, but a strong improvement over the same time last year.

Attendance at Walt Disney World was down 11 percent for the year, according to analysts' estimates from Prudential Financial. The theme park resort doesn't release attendance figures.

International visitor figures at Disney World are still down by about 20 percent, but the numbers are far better than the 30 percent decline reported earlier in the year.

While analysts at Merrill Lynch believe attendance at Walt Disney World will improve by 1 percent next year, attendance is hard to predict because visitors are making reservations as late as two weeks before taking their trips.

"The near-term attendance outlook remains bleak," the Merrill Lynch analysts wrote in a November report.

Moreover, the bellwether for how the theme parks perform is the consumer confidence measure. In general, three months of consecutive downturns in consumer confidence precedes a drop-off in call volume and advanced booking to the Disney parks, according to the Merrill Lynch analysts.

The consumer confidence, as measured by a University of Michigan survey, reached a nine-year low in October.

"Everywhere, everyone is scared of spending," said Patrick West, a tourist from Mexico City, who was shopping at an outlet mall in Orlando's tourist district with his wife and four grade-school age children. "It's psychological."

But West, a 41-year-old industrial engineer, said the desire for his children to see Disney World outweighed financial concerns.

"The economy is not always going to be good, so there are bad times," he said. "But I came here because my kids wanted to be here."

To encourage such an attitude with other tourists, the theme parks continue to offer discounts and specials.

At Disney World, Canadian visitors are being given the chance to book hotels in Canadian dollars so they don't have to worry about currency conversion. Disney also had a deal that gave one child free airfare and gratis entrance to the parks for British families who flew on Virgin Atlantic and British Airways.

At Universal Orlando, Florida residents are saving $25 on a two-day, two-park ticket by bringing in specially marked Coca-Cola products from Publix stores. The resort also is offering hotel rates as low as $113 per night at its three luxury hotels.

But Rosen said tourists will flock back to Orlando only when the United States resolves its dispute with Iraq. "Then the recovery begins," he said.

Travel warnings hit Malaysia tourism

Business Day  -  Fewer foreign tourists are expected in Malaysia due to travel warnings about Southeast Asia issued by Western nations, a senior minister says.

As many as 300,000 fewer foreigners are expected to land in Malaysia per month, said tourism minister Abdul Kadir Sheikh Fadzir, despite Malaysian tourism promotions overseas receiving positive responses.

"Our forecast now is only between one to 1.1 million (tourists every month) compared with 1.3 million before, which is 100,000 to 300,000 less that what we'd hoped for," he was quoted as saying by Bernama news agency.

But Kadir expressed confidence the total number of tourists to visit the country would hit 13 million by end of the year, an increase of 300,000 over last year.

"If not for the travel advisory and the Bali bombing tragedy, the situation might have been better. Now everyone thinks the entire (Southeast Asian) region is affected," he said.

Tourism is a vital source of revenue for Malaysia, like many other Southeast Asian economies.

Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Abar warned Monday of the likely impact of travel warnings on the fragile economies of the region.

"They would not be able to grow, their trade and investments will suffer. Tourism, which is a very big source of income, will also suffer," Syed Hamid said Australia, the United States and other Western countries have warned their citizens of the dangers of travel to Southeast Asia after the October 12 bombing on the Indonesian resort island of Bali that killed more than 190 people, most of them foreing tourists.

A US State Department warning last week specifically mentioned Malaysia as a country where US nationals could be at risk of attack by the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) terrorist network, blamed for the Bali bombing.

 



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