Promoting a good internal candidate generally is better than choosing an outstanding external candidate, researchers find

Which is a better choice – the external job candidate who scored exceptionally high on an interview or the internal candidate who has an above-average, but not exceptional, past-performance record?

While it may be tempting to hire the freshest face with the glowing interview, the best choice, time and again, is the above-average employee in the organization who has consistently been rated well in the past, according to a new study by a Cornell University researcher and his colleagues. The researchers provide estimates of the strength of the relationship between past and future performance that supervisors can use in the hiring process.

“Past-performance appraisals are by far much more valid in predicting future job performance. Thus, as in most cases where there is reliable, valid information about an above-average internal candidate, that candidate should be selected over top external candidates who might have had a stellar interview,” says Michael Sturman, an associate professor of organizational management, communications and law in Cornell’s School of Hotel Administration. Past-performance records, he says, are much better predictors of future performance than other recommended, but less valid, selection tools, such as structured interviews, cognitive-activity tests and job simulations. This is especially true, Sturman notes, for professional positions such as managers and supervisors, but it also holds true for jobs such as sales positions, bank tellers and production workers. 

Sturman’s report, “How to Compare Apples to Oranges: Balancing Internal Candidates’ Job-Performance Data with External Candidates’ Selection-Test Results,” co-authored with Robin A. Cheramie and Luke H. Cashen, doctoral candidates at the E.J. Ourso College of Business Administration at Louisiana State University, was published by the Center for Hospitality Research at Cornell’s Hotel School in September.  The full report is available at  www.hotelschool.cornell.edu/chr  The report also was published in the August 2002 issue of the Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly.

Even though an employee’s job performance may vary over time as the worker acquires experience, gains or loses motivation and has different opportunities to succeed or fail, employers can expect an employee who has done well in the past to deliver a solid, positive performance record for years to come, the researchers found.

Sturman and his colleagues analyzed 20 human-resources studies on individual performance over three or more time periods published in a range of scholarly journals on management, marketing and psychology. Together the studies’ findings comprised hundreds of observations about on-the-job behavior in a wide range of positions. The researchers then calculated the correlation between past appraisals and current performance in several different job types, including both professional and hourly positions in a range of fields, such as academia, sales, banking, insurance, manufacturing and finance. The range of jobs included both those that are evaluated objectively and those that are evaluated subjectively.

The “Apples and Oranges” report offers mathematical approaches employers can use to calculate the weight that should be accorded a particular type or age of appraisal. For example, Sturman and his colleagues found that the older the appraisal of an employee, the less it should be weighted, but on average, the validity of past employee data, even relatively old data, tends to be much more accurate than selection tests or interviews.

“Hiring decisions should be made based on whatever tool provides the most accurate prediction of future performance,” advises Sturman. “To do that, the information should be weighted by its validity.”

The researchers also caution employers to use statistical or other hard evidence rather than emotions or “gut feelings” when making hiring decisions.  For both internal and external candidates, hiring data should be collected in a consistent and even-handed fashion, says Sturman.

The Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, of which Sturman serves as an editor, is considered the premier journal of applied research serving the hospitality industry and is published under the aegis of Cornell’s Center for Hospitality Research.  The center conducts and sponsors research studies aimed at improving the hospitality industry’s fundamental operating knowledge.

TITLE:  Making hiring choices

ABSTRACT: Choosing an internal candidate with an average, but not exceptional, past-performance record is usually the better choice for a job than the external job candidate who scored exceptionally high on an interview, according to Michael Sturman of Cornell University’s School of Hotel Administration. His new study on comparing job performance data is published by Cornell’s Center for Hospitality Research.

KEYWORDS: job, interview, performance, candidates, Sturman, CHR, employees, work, HR, workplace, hiring, business, management

CAT:  BL, HO

Incoming 2003 AH&LA Chairman Handlery Dedicated To Formalizing Association's Governance And Building Key Industry Partnerships

Washington, November 25, 2002 - During his recent inaugural speech at The Regent Wall Street in New York City, incoming 2003 American Hotel & Lodging Association (AH&LA) Chairman Michael K. Handlery, CHA, declared his commitment to stabilizing the financial future of the lodging industry, focusing on the association's governing model and current membership structure, and forming closer relationships with industry affiliates.

Handlery reminded the capacity audience that the lodging industry is still recovering financially from the devastating effects of September 11 and the current state of the economy. Where we are going will depend on where the economy is going. The possibility of war and further incidents of terrorism may deter people from traveling. Never have times been so challenging for the lodging industry. Nor has there been a time we have needed a strong industry association to wrestle with many diverse issues.

In the face of these uncertain times, Handlery wants to work more closely with other hospitality and tourism-related associations to aid in bridging the gap with industry-led efforts. We need to maintain and strengthen alliances to address our common needs. This is a time to join together because we have so many shared issues, such as immigration reform, labor laws, and travel tourism promotion. As a vital collective economic engine for the hospitality community, we can continue stating our concerns on the federal level. We also need to jointly express the need for government funding for a national tourism office that would help increase our international visitors status.

During his term, Handlery will work closely with an independent consulting firm and AH&LA President and CEO Joseph A. McInerney, CHA, to develop strategies to identify ways to improve the association's membership structure and governance. To a certain extent, our federation is living in the past, due to constrictions of our bylaws that were written many years ago. If we continue to exist according to those bylaws, we risk becoming outdated. In order for AH&LA to continue to serve its members in the most efficient and effective manner - as well as being the U.S. lodging industry's advocate and indispensable resource - we need to foster change. Let's lead the association in the direction that truly represents the new face of our industry today and what it will become tomorrow.

In addition to his responsibilities as AH&LA chairman, Handlery is senior vice president of Handlery Hotels, Inc. - a third generation family business that was founded in 1926 by his grandfather, Harry Handlery. The San Francisco, Calif.-based company operates two local full-service hotel properties. Handlery has been active with the California Hotel & Lodging Association where he served as president in 1991. He has also currently serves on various AH&LA committees, including the Small & Independent Properties Advisory Council and the Political Action Committee. In addition, Handlery received a bachelor's degree from the Cornell University School of Hotel Administration.

Other 2003 AH&LA officers include Vice Chairman Dieter Huckestein, executive vice president, Hilton Hotels Corporation; Secretary/Treasurer Pedro Mandoki, president, Plantation Resort Management, Inc.; and Immediate Past Chairman Kirby D. Payne, CHA, president American Hospitality Management Company.

AH&LA is a 92-year-old federation of state lodging associations throughout the United States with some 13,000 property members worldwide, representing more than 1.7 million guest rooms. AH&LA provides its members with assistance in operations, education, and communications, and lobbies on Capitol Hill to provide a business climate in which the industry can continue to prosper. Individual state associations provide representation at the state level and offer many additional cost-saving benefits.

Corinthia Grand Hotel Royal, Budapest – “A Legend Re-Born”

The five-star deluxe Corinthia Grand Hotel Royal, a landmark redevelopment of a historic 19^TH century hotel in the heart of Budapest, Hungary, has re-opened its doors following a two-year reconstruction period, welcoming shareholders of its Maltese owning company, IHI plc, among its first guests.

Within Hungary, the re-opening of the Grand Hotel Royal is being hailed as a major milestone for the City of Budapest’s continued revival. The Hotel enjoys a special place in the heart of most Hungarians, in that the property had for many years following its first opening in 1896 been the focal point for the country’s long standing tradition of five-star hospitality.

The Euro 100 million project has indeed been a truly impressive achievement for IHI plc. The project covered 59,000 square metres of construction, essentially entailing the total redevelopment of the historic Grand Hotel Royal, whilst retaining historic features such as the listed façade and the imposing turn-of-the-century ballroom. The Hotel now has the most complete range of facilities of any hotel in Hungary, including over 3,600 square metres of conference facilities, representing two-thirds of the conference space available in the City of Budapest’s five-star hotels. Other facilities comprise 414 executive bedrooms, several fine restaurants, and will also include a unique 19^th century spa located beneath the Hotel, an executive floor, a 300-car multi-storey car park, 28 penthouse apartments and a casino nightclub.

Over 320 shareholders in International Hotel Investments plc, the Maltese public company owning the Hotel, took up a special offer by the Company to visit Hungary on purposely-chartered flights and to stay at the Hotel as the first guests. Judging from feedback received, the Hotel has truly lived up to the shareholder’s expectations, both in terms of décor as well as the style of service offered by the company’s staff.

IHI plc acquired the Grand Hotel Royal on the Company’s inception in 2000 and immediately moved to initiate the mammoth task of rebuilding the erstwhile derelict and abandoned hotel. Quality Project Management Ltd, a Maltese project management company affiliated to IHI, was nominated to lead the project and represent IHI’s interests with consultants, architects, contractors and neighbours. The Hotel has now been handed over to Corinthia Hotels International, who will be operating the Hotel on behalf of IHI.

IHI plc is a hotel investor and developer. Other than the Grand Hotel Royal, the Company owns the Corinthia San Gorg Hotel in Malta, as well as the Corinthia Alfa Hotel in Lisbon and the Corinthia Nevskij Palace Hotel in St Petersburg, Russia.   

Ten Years of Stagnation in European Tourism-A New Global Trend?

eTurbo.com  -  Once again the tourism industry has proved to be one of the most resilient and dynamic sectors of the European economy. After a decrease of -0.6% in international tourist arrivals in Europe in 2001 (compared with the record year of 2000), preliminary figures for the first six to eight months of 2002 indicate a small decrease in European inbound tourism again this year (in the region of -0.2% to -0.3%).

Travel and tourism are already part of consumer behaviour so that, even with the problems related to the global economic slowdown and terrorism, travellers are still willing to travel more. However, the pattern has changed a little. Many European countries have observed increases in domestic tourism, more travel within the same region, more travel by road and rail, more individual trips, more direct booking, and an increased use of low-cost airlines. Some of these changes are probably temporary, but others may be structural.

Regarding the supply, there are two main elements: the destinations and the industry. Among the destinations there are some losers and some winners, and their future depends largely on their ability to adapt to demand. In the industry the effects are more visible. The airlines, in particular the American carriers, and European tour operators have been hit harder by the weakness of the outbound markets, later booking, the tendency towards shorter length of stay, and cost- cutting on business trips. The industry has to adapt to these new facts. The demand is still there.

European destinations and the European travel and tourism industry are world leaders in inbound and outbound tourism. They have shown their capacity to change in the past, and they will know how to respond to the new challenges in order to remain the world's number one destination and first outbound market.

Japanese Tourists Pick Vietnam

eTurbo.com  -  The number of Japanese tourists traveling to Vietnam is expected to hit 300,000 this year, up almost 100,000 from last year, according to a report in Hanoi by the Administration of Tourism on Wednesday.

"Many Japanese tourists are now making Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries such as Vietnam their first choice, " the administration's deputy head Duong Xuan Hoi said.

Vietnam is expected to receive 500,000 Japanese visitors by 2005. The country has promoted itself by attending various international festivals, including the ASEAN Tourism Festival in Japan, the Top Resa in France and the Road Show in Sydney, Australia.

The country has also planned to attend future events in China's mainland, India, Britain and China's Taiwan. In the first 10 months of this year, Vietnam received close to 2.2 million foreign tourists, an 11.3 percent increase over last year's figure.

Accor to launch Backpacker Hotels in Australia, New Zealand

Asia Pulse  -  An international hotel management group will launch the world's first globally branded backpacker network in a bid to get a slice of the lucrative independent travellers market.

Accor is set to launch its base backpackers brand in New Zealand and Australia next year before taking the concept to the rest of the world.

The company, which manages the Sofitel, Novotel, Mercure, All Seasons and Ibis and Formule 1 brands, chose New Zealand and Australia to test the concept because of their sophisticated backpacker markets.

Graeme Warring, who will head the new brand for Accor, said base will offer, for the first time, a reliable international name on the scene that guarantees a consistent standard of accommodation.

He said backpackers in the past have had to rely on word-of-mouth, guide books and flyers to find accommodation with the standards being hit or miss.

"As a result we expect to see people who wouldn't traditionally stay in backpacker accommodation attracted to base because of its high standards of accommodation and facilities," Mr Warring said in a statement.

Services offered will include themed bars with chill-out areas with DVD and large screen TVs, games lounges and dancing; regular entertainment; state-of-the-art security; modern shared cooking facilities; travel advice; and assistance with visas, banking and employment.

The backpacker market is worth billions to the Australian tourism industry.

They represent 10 per cent of all visitors to Australia and 20 per cent of total arrivals from Britain.

"Today's backpackers are better educated and likely to be better informed and better travelled," Mr Warring said.

"They have high expectations from their accommodation and expect the latest in communications, entertainment and facilities."

The first base will be launched with the opening of two new backpacker hostels in Auckland and Wellington in mid-2003.

They will join Accor's first hostel in New Zealand, The Wall in Rotorua, which Accor took over in September 2002.

In Australia, Accor will roll out base backpacker hostels in all key gateway and adventure tourism destinations in the next 12 months.

Bali revival hit by lack of funds

TravelWeekyEast.com   -  Any programme targeting the rejuvenation of the Australian tourist traffic to Bali will have to be initiated by Australian wholesalers, hoteliers and tour operators in Bali, according to Peter Baily, chairman of the Council of Australian Tour Operators.

Tourism authorities in Bali are anxious about the immediate future and keen to assist, they have admitted they have no funds.

Baily and his vice chairman Michael Hay have returned to Sydney from Bali after a three-day visit involving meetings with the Australian consul, Government tourist bodies and a broad cross-section of the tourist industry.

Speaking on a TV Bali programme yesterday, Baily said both he and Hay had been perfectly at ease visiting the island's major tourist centres.

Although more than 300,000 Australians visit Bali every year, neither Indonesia nor Bali have a tourism promotion office in Australia, nor are there any plans to open temporary offices to try and alleviate the current crisis.

Baily said Indonesian statistics revealed Australian visitors spend an average of about A$1,800 (US$1,007) per person on accommodation, food and beverage, vehicle rental, shopping and day trips - an annual financial injection of A$540 million, a major contribution to the Bali economy.

He added, "Balinese hoteliers from five star to backpacker establishments are now operating at between 10 and 15 per cent occupancy, so you can see how seriously the industry is distressed."

IH&RA 39th Annual Congress Marks New Era for the Global  Hospitality Association;

New Membership Structure,  Business Plan and Board of Directors  to Lead IH&RA in 2003 

Around 100 international hospitality executives from 30 countries representing North America, Latin and Central America, the Middle East, Western and Eastern Europe and the Asia Pacific attended the International Hotel & Restaurant Association (IH&RA) 39th Annual Congress held in New York City, 8-11 November, 2002.  This Congress served as the platform to announce major changes to the membership structure of the 55-year old association, and to unveil the 2003 Business Plan and new Board of Directors. 

Following the IH&RA Annual General Assembly held during the Congress, IH&RA members unanimously voted that the Association should focus on two core membership categories: national hotel and restaurant associations (“NACE”) and international and national hotel and restaurant Chains.  IH&RA currently counts approximately 30 national and international chain members representing over 40 brands, and 80 national associations representing over 100 countries. 

A “Chains Council” of CEOs from international and national hotel and restaurant chains met for the first time at the IH&RA Congress to discuss strategy and set policy for the Association’s monitoring and lobbying activities on behalf of the Chains.  NACE members also met and agreed to form regional satellites to comprise hospitality Associations in North America, Latin/Central America, Europe, Middle East/Africa and Asia Pacific in order to facilitate communication between NACE members and IH&RA.  Regional NACE meetings will be held at least once a year to review IH&RA lobbying activities, as well as prioritise topics of regional and global concern to the industry.  Like the Chains Council, the “NACE Council” will make recommendations to the IH&RA from the Association point of view. 

Working at the international level, IH&RA focuses its activities on monitoring and lobbying the UN and its agencies and the other inter-governmental organisations whose work directly or indirectly impacts the hospitality and wider tourism industry.  IH&RA is formally recognised as an accredited Non Governmental Organisation (NGO) by ECOSOC and has close and long-standing ties with a number of agencies, specifically the WTO (World Tourism Organisation), UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), ILO (International Labour Organisation) and UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific, & Cultural Organisation).  IH&RA’s views and participation are regularly sought by these agencies which only invite representation from recognised institutional partners.  Some of the critical issues being monitored and lobbied by IH&RA are: 

• Traveller Safety and Security: IH&RA lobbies via the World Tourism Organisation Tourism Recovery Committee to increase recognition of the hospitality industry’s concern in response to recent world events, the drastic effects these events have on the industry, as well as elicit more support from international organisations and national governments. 

• Food Safety and Security:  IH&RA supports the work of the World Health Organisation (WHO) and recently issued a report on “Food Safety Activities of International Organisations” which cites measures taken to ensure food safety and security, as well as traceability and limits of accountability for hospitality establishments, the last link in the food-to-table supply chain.

• GATS (General Agreement on Trade in Services): IH&RA is closely monitoring the World Tourism Organisation’s proposal that tourism should be covered by a separate annex to the GATS.

• Corporate Social Responsibility and Sustainable Development: Working with UNEP, IH&RA actively promotes sustainable tourism in the international hospitality industry.  IH&RA also monitors the growing call for corporate social accountability and is consulting with members as to acceptable indicators and benchmarks. 

• Human Resources and the Flexibility of Working Conditions: Through observer status at ILO (International Labour Organisation), IH&RA opposes restrictive employment conventions and favours the flexibility of working conditions in the industry. Recently, on the initiative of IH&RA, the Board of the World Tourism Organisation (WTO) Business Council also decided to examine in greater detail the huge demand for qualified staff throughout the world. 

During the IH&RA Congress, a new 2003 IH&RA Board of Directors was elected: 

President re-elect: Eric E. Pfeffer, President Pfeffer Group and International Hospitality Consultant, La Quinta Inns & Suites and Cendant Corporation 
Vice-President: John Bell,  Executive Vice President, Caribbean Hotels Association 
Secretary re-elect: Abraham Rosental, Director General, Israel Hotel Association 
Treasurer re-elect: Joseph E. Spinnato, President, Hotel Association of New York City  Past-President: Ejnar Söder, CEO, Nordic Hotels, Stockholm Sweden 
Chairman of National Associations Re-Elect: Anthony Pollard, President, Hotel Association of Canada 

IH&RA CEO: Alain-Philippe Feutré 

Chairman of Chains Council: to be appointed by Chains Council 

National Hospitality Association Representatives to the Board: 

Grant Bowie, Australian Hotel Association: Sr. Vice President - Australia & General Manager, Conrad Jupiters 
Florian Hew, Director GastroSuisse Switzerland 
Miguel Torruco Marques, President Mexican Hotel Association 
Kasim Zoto, Turkish Hotel Association (TUROB): General Manager Hotel Armada, Istanbul 

Appointed by the Board - National Association representing the Restaurant Sector: 
Bruce C. Cotton, National Restaurant Association, U.S., Vice President Cracker Barrel Old Country
Store

Appointed by the Board - Worldwide Partner Representative: 
Hans Lindh, Director, Head of Hotel & Restaurant Industries Europe/Africa/Middle East, American Express Establishment Services Group

Chains Representatives to the Board: 

Stan Bruns, Senior Vice President International Lodging, Marriott International 
Jean-Paul Herzog, Vice President Hilton International Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria 
Hervé Houdré, Chief Operating Officer, Kempinski Hotels & Resorts 
Anupam Narayan, Senior Vice President Global Strategy & CFO, Best Western International 
James Olsen, Senior Vice President International Development, Carlson Hospitality Worldwide 

Appointed by the Board - Independent Operators Representative:
Mats Östblom, Managing Director, Hotel Liseberg Heden, Göteborg, Sweden 

The 2002 IH&RA Congress, sponsored by American Express Establishment Services and Horwath Consulting, was held alongside another major industry event, the 87th Annual International Hotel/Motel & Restaurant Show (IH/M&RS), jointly produced by IH&RA members, the American Hotel & Lodging Association, the New York State Tourism & Hospitality Association and the Hotel Association of New York City.  The concurrent positioning of these two events resulted in a synergistic forum where IH&RA Congress delegates could network with some 50,000 industry operators and  suppliers present at the IH/M&RS tradeshow.  Congress delegates also participated in the IH&RA-sponsored “International Day” and a full Educational Program of more than 40 seminars. 

IH&RA’s 40th Annual Congress will be held in Cairo, Egypt in the autumn of 2003.  Originally, the 39th Annual Congress had been scheduled to take place in Cairo in 2001, but was postponed following the tragic events of September 11.  IH&RA moved the location of this Congress to New York City in 2002 in a show of industry support and solidarity to the city of New York and to IH&RA members in the United States. 

The International Hotel & Restaurant Association (IH&RA) is a network of international and national hotel and restaurant chains and national hotel and restaurant associations in more than 100 countries.  Its mission is to protect, promote and inform the hospitality industry worldwide.  Through its membership network, IH&RA represents an industry of 300,000 hotels and 8 million restaurants which employ 60 million people and contribute 950 billion USD annually to the global economy.

Contact:
Summer Jauneaud
Tel: (33 1) 44 89 94 00
E-mail: jauneaud@ih-ra.com
http://www.ih-ra.com  

Up to 40% savings with Shangri-la’s 'Rate Break'

Shangri-La  Hotels  and  Resorts  will  offer  savings  of  up to 40% and complimentary  breakfast as part of its superb value-for-money Rate Break promotion.   Available  at all 38 Shangri-La and Traders hotels including eight  resorts  throughout  Asia  Pacific,  the promotion is valid from 1 December  2002  until 28 February 2003 and includes double air miles with participating airline partners.

Commenting  on this promotion, Carmen Lam, Shangri-La's group director of sales  and  marketing,  said: 'We have reintroduced 'Rate Break' due to the excellent  feedback we received from our guests and the popularity of the offer.   Rate  Break  represents  exceptional  value, making the next few months an ideal time to experience Shangri-La's award-winning hospitality and highly personalised service.'

Shangri-La  Hotels  and  Resorts  is the largest Asian-based luxury hotel company  in  the region with nearly 20,000 rooms and 38 hotels located in the  Chinese mainland, Fiji, Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines,  Singapore,  Taiwan  and  Thailand.  For reservations please contact  Shangri-La's  worldwide sales and reservations offices, a travel consultant or book on-line at www.shangri-la.com .

Space tourism faces long countdown 

Companies slowly develop vehicles for commercial travel 

If scads of surveys are correct, the public is hungry for ticket-counter takeoffs to space. But of you’re hoping to experience a little sightseeing from Earth orbit anytime soon, you might have to delay buffing up your space helmet visor. The track record on building tourist-toting rockets is anything but stellar.

TAKE, FOR INSTANCE, Rotary Rocket’s private effort that went south, not up. The company, like several other entrepreneurial groups no longer in action, was fueled by high hopes but riding empty on cash.

 For its part, NASA has coughed up billions of taxpayer bucks for any number of “beyond shuttle” escapades. First there was the ill-fated X-33 prototype single-stage-to-orbit space plane. It went down in flames even before its set of fancy aerospike engines could ignite.

More recently, NASA’s highly flaunted Space Launch Initiative to build super-slick generations of reusable boosters dead-ended.
Over the years, an array of contraptions to push cargo and humans into Earth orbit have been sketched out. (There is no doubt that the “ABV” — Air-Brushed Vehicle — art business is solid.)

Nevertheless, unwavering cadres of rocket engineers, space planners and tourism experts fully expect that 21st-century spaceliners are on the horizon. But how to get up there from down here remains up for grabs.
       
LAUNCH LINGO

In its final report issued last week to the president and the U.S. Congress, the Commission on the Future of the United States Aerospace Industry made special note of the promise of public space travel — beyond hurling millionaires into space at upwards

 “Given what people do spend on vacations and amusement park rides and adventure travel, we have no reason to doubt that the demand will rise without limit as the price drops,” explained the commission’s report.

 Moreover, the commission suggested that space tourism markets might help fund the launch industry through its current market slump. Increased launch demand thanks to space tourism could help drive launch costs down, they concluded, and perhaps ultimately support a robust space transportation industry with “airlinelike operations.” For that to happen, a special breed of rocket is essential: the reusable launch vehicle, or RLV in launch lingo.

INTERAGENCY COOPERATION

“We come down very solidly in favor of RLV as a way of, hopefully, bringing down costs,” the commission’s chairman, Robert Walker, told Space.com.

 “We think it’s the RLV technology that ultimately gives you the opportunity for public space participation,” Walker notes.

 Melding civilian and military space interests, Walker explained, is a way to serve up that high-tech order. “Let’s look at the kind of interagency cooperation that makes all of our space assets available to everyone.”

Walker said that NASA’s recent judgment to pursue an Orbital Space Plane — a taxi and rescue/return craft to ferry crew members to and from the international space station — might give the nation a leg up on space tourism.

“As we human-test that concept, that may offer an opportunity to covert it into a space tourism possibility,” Walker judges.
       
STEEP TICKET PRICES

Space tourism is an emerging but long-term market, contends John Olds, president and chief executive officer of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc., based in Atlanta. Having a space tourist shell

out millions of dollars for a blast into the heavens does not a major market make, he cautions.

“In order to capture a market of any size, ticket prices probably have to fall into the $50,000 to $100,000 range. For a realistic number of passenger seats on a future reusable launch vehicle, say 20, the revenues per flight are less than $2 million. At this point, even the third-generation reusable launch vehicle designs we’ve looked at here have trouble getting their operations and support cost under that … much less being able to justify their development costs to address this market,” Olds says.

Olds advises that public space travel might blossom into being if a government entity bankrolled the building of a reusable launch vehicle designed to handle other needs. The developing company could then turn that launcher into a space tourism vehicle. However, individual ticket prices would remain steep. “More millionaires in space,” he adds

CHANCY LOTTERY IDEA

Another avenue to cultivate true public access to space is through a lottery system.
Buying a “chance” to ride into space for $100 a ticket or so has merit, Olds says. This idea assumes that individuals are willing to purchase a ticket for less than a 1-in-100 chance of winning, and that lottery ticket sales could be sustained for more than a year or so.

A similar view was advanced at a three-day gathering of 200 young professionals from 47 nations at last month’s World Space Congress in Houston. A global lottery was one recommendation among many put forth during a Space Generation Summit. In essence, the lottery idea would bolster within the larger population the notion that public space travel is possible.

Lottery ticket sales for a fee in the range of $100 per ticket would lead to the winner training for a visit to the international space station. Better yet is planting a tourist module on the space station.

“Building a separate hotel in space at this time seems cost-prohibitive. However, several large hotel chains might be willing to invest in a special module on an existing space station. They could use this module as a learning lab for space tourism and eventually create separate hotels,” explains a Space Generation Summit briefing sheet on commerce and space.
       
OUT OF THE CAPSULE ERA

Strong parallels can be drawn between the current commercial space travel market and the beginning of commercial aviation travel, notes Jason Andrews, president of Andrews Space & Technology, headquartered in Seattle.

Like the early years of air travel, space travel of today is infrequent, risky and exhilarating for the passenger, Andrews points out.

NASA and industry rocketeers have been persistently pursuing dream machines that deliver a huge reduction in launch costs. The ability to do so is often tied to having such craft operate in airlinelike fashion.

“It’s a cliché that implies a highly operable, highly reusable vehicle that requires relatively small fixed overhead. To achieve this we need to develop better engine and thermal protection technology, which are big-ticket-item development activities,” Andrews suggests.

Andrews believes the technology is in hand to apply “airlinelike operations” to the suborbital tourism market. “However, it will be quite some time before the orbital tourism market evolves out of the capsule era,” he says

A CERTAIN UNCERTAINTY

Some space planners believe that flat-out uncertainty is the key factor holding back the development of the space tourism market.

“While the uncertainty in demand [for public space travel] is being addressed through numerous studies, the supply-side uncertainty remains a significant obstacle for private investors,” explains Simone Garneau, co-founder and consultant for Futuraspace LLC in Montreal.

Garneau senses that while investors are willing to take calculated risks, “they are not comfortable with the high levels of uncertainty that, presently, are not quantified.”

Both the private and public sectors, Garneau urges, need a “space tourism roadmap” — one that outlines the necessary steps for resolving the cost, capacity, frequency and reliability problems related to access to space.
       
PARADIGM SHIFT AND CULTURAL CHANGE

A likely source of pushing space plane technology — designed for high sortie rates, speedy turnaround and a host of other operational issues — is the U.S. military.

Military needs go right to the heart of airlinelike operations. More so than NASA, explains Jay Penn, a senior project engineer and head of the Reusable Launch Office at The Aerospace Corp. in El Segundo, Calif.

“When you look at it from a NASA perspective, they don’t have a driving or compelling need for a very highly operable, quick turnaround vehicle. Their current sizing is based on what I call this heavy-lift capability, flying only a four to six launchers per year to support the international space station,” Penn said

Penn said that it appears to be technically possible to develop a reusable space booster to support a commercially viable space tourism industry. There’s a caveat, however.

For a space tourism industry to be viable, flight rates about two orders of magnitude higher than those required for conventional spacelift would be mandatory. That translates into a paradigm shift, Penn adds, a culture change in rethinking and redesigning all the major components of a space plane system. Vehicle reliabilities must approach those of commercial aircraft, as closely as possible, he says.
       
SUBORBITAL FOOTHOLD

 Hitching the public space tourism star to NASA’s slow-moving space transportation train is a nonstarter, declares Patrick Collins, a professor of economics at Azabu University in Japan. He believes there are “terrible negative economic effects” of NASA’s monopoly in this area.

Collins worries that NASA does not appear keen on encouraging the fullest commercial use of space, as required by U.S. federal law. Rather, the space agency may just defend the short-term economic interests of itself and its clients at the expense of U.S. taxpayers.

 “That would be very disappointing,” Collins says, if NASA refuses to fund the only promising commercial activity — public space travel. “The overriding issue in the United States today is surely the economy. And space under NASA is not making the contribution it could and should,” he complains.

The good news, Collins concludes, is that the X Prize purse of $10 million is finally together. Indeed, numbers of teams are vying for the cash. Innovative approaches to building suborbital vehicles around the world are under way.

 To win the X Prize, a team must build and fly a reusable spacecraft able to carry three people on a suborbital trip to the edge of space and back, reaching 62 miles (100 kilometers) in altitude. X Prize entrants must also demonstrate reusability of their spacecraft by flying twice within a two-week period.

 “It’s sad that it has to be so slow,” Collins feels, “but starting with suborbital is certainly one way to get there … even without any of the $25 billion a year that governments spend.”

Source:  Space.com