The Latest Global Travel Trends

INTRODUCTION TO IPK'S PISA FORUM For the ninth consecutive year IPK International - the World Travel Monitor Company - together with its partners, WTO, ETC, PATA, TIA and the US DOC, invited some 50 travel and tourism experts from more than 30 countries to Pisa, from 6-9 November, for two days of discussions on global tourism trends. The discussions were based on the findings of more than 500,000 representative interviews in some 60 travel source countries in Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific concerning outbound travel in the first eight months of 2002. 

Twelve months ago, this same group of international experts, representing both the public and private sectors, forecast that international tourism would decline by only 1% in 2001 over 2000's level, despite the events of 11 September and the global economic downturn. This forecast has since been proved correct - the final results confirmed by the World Tourism Organization show a 0.6% decrease in international arrivals last year. Last week's Pisa Forum concluded that 2002 would show a 1% increase worldwide, taking the total number of arrivals to at least the same level as that achieved in the record year of 2000. This forecast takes into account the impact of 11 September 2001, as well as the more recent terrorist attacks in Djerba, Bali and Moscow. While some major markets - such as the USA, Japan and Germany - have continued to suffer from the impact of a depressed economy, emerging markets in Eastern Europe and Asia have shown remarkable growth in outbound travel. For 2003, the IPK Forum predicts a return to pre-11 September growth levels for world travel and tourism of some 2-3%, and this should progressively improve - to 3-4% in 2004. 

The Pisa Forum assessed the tourism performance of all the major source markets and destinations around the world in 2002 and their prospects for 2003. In addition, it looked at the changing pattern of demand for travel and discussed whether the new trends identified are temporary, or whether they reflect a more significant change in the structure of global travel and tourism demand that has implications for destinations and other suppliers in the future. IPK also shared some of the preliminary results of its Generation project, which analyses the impact of ageing populations on international travel and tourism demand over the next 20 years. For further information, contact IPK at: info@ipkinternational.com

WORLD INBOUND TRAVEL SCENARIO, 2002 In 2001 international arrivals declined by 0.6%, the first year of negative growth since 1982. Does this mean that the 'good times' are over? Not necessarily. Had it not been for the sizeable increase in tourist arrivals witnessed in 2000, the results for 2001 would have been in line with the annual trend observed over the past decade. Tourism enjoyed exceptional years in 2000 and 2001. In 2000, international tourism grew by 45 million arrivals, registering a growth level rarely seen before. The decline in late 2001 and most of 2002 requires us to re-examine the patterns of demand, the flexibility of tourism supply and the marketing know-how of destinations. Furthermore, we need to reaffirm our commitment to working together to try to alleviate the negative impacts of recent events on tourism, to heal where pain has already been caused, and to ensure that future tourism development is sustainable in economic, social and ecological terms. 

As of November 2002, preliminary results from different regions show that Northern Europe has suffered the biggest decline in tourist arrivals in Europe. The other sub-regions have been more successful, especially the Mediterranean countries and 'new' destinations such as Turkey, Croatia and Bulgaria. 2002 has not been a good year for the Americas, especially the USA, which is currently down around - 13%. The situation is somewhat better in the Caribbean and Central America, with the latter expecting a slight increase over 2001's level. China has continued to show strong growth in 2002 (+10%) and good increases have also been registered by Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam. However, the impact of the Bali tragedy on the region's tourism remains to be seen. Inbound travel to Africa, with the notable exception of South Africa, has been hit heavily by 11 September since it is so dependent on airline traffic. Some destinations have even suffered double-digit declines, albeit from a low base. Heightened security concerns have negatively affected demand for travel from traditional Western source markets to North Africa and the Middle East. 

The unfavourable situation does not necessarily imply there will be a prolonged slump in international tourism activity. The demand potential for travel remains strong and some destinations that are perceived as being 'protected' are showing renewed strong growth. WTO forecasts that 2002 will close with a slight increase in arrivals and receipts or, at worst, stagnation compared with 2001. For further information, contact Rok Klancnik at: rklancnik@world-tourism.org

US TRAVEL AND TOURISM - HOW TRAVELLERS AND THE INDUSTRY ARE RESPONDING TO UNPRECEDENTED CHALLENGE AND CHANGE Economic recession and 11 September have had a major impact on US travel. Business travel will decline more than 4% this year. Leisure travel will be up just 2%. Total travel expenditures, which declined nearly 6% in 2001, will not recover until 2004. Why? US travellers have altered their behaviour and traditional travel patterns. Americans went back to the basics. They are travelling more domestically and closer to home. They are travelling more by car and less by air. They are travelling with family members and visiting heritage, cultural, and outdoor recreation sites more often. 

They are booking later and they are spending less. The impact of these changing patterns has been uneven. Air carriers and urban business hotels in gateway cities have suffered greatly. The Atlantic and Pacific coasts experienced declines while the middle of the country saw little change. Businesses that depended on international visitors saw dramatic losses. But destinations, lodging, attractions, and cultural and heritage sites that rely on the leisure family drive market held up well. So, too, did cruises and travel by recreational vehicles. Is this a permanent change in travel patterns or is it a short- term cyclical downturn? The industry is taking no chances. In unprecedented fashion they have formed co-operative marketing programmes and created partnerships that leverage their resources and increase their reach and impact. 

Many have discounted prices. Most importantly, they have taken advantage of this downward period to undertake major structural reviews of their operational practices, their staffing, their services and their marketing. In typical American fashion, the US travel industry is rethinking and reinventing its very self. Where will it lead? Nobody knows for sure, but we forecast a stronger industry by 2004 when travel expenditures should return to year 2000 levels.For further information, contact Dexter Koehl at: dkoehl@tia.org

NEW FORECASTS AND TRENDS FOR US OUTBOUND AND INBOUND TRAVEL Travel and tourism is a significant economic export engine for the United States, bringing in over US$91 billion in 2001. Travel and tourism is the top services export, and the fourth largest export overall for the country. The forecast of international travel projects that a record 60 million international visitors will come to the USA in 2006, a 32% increase over 2001. International visitation to the USA will return to pre-11 September levels by 2004. For US travellers going abroad, we forecast that 2002 will show a 2% decrease, but it is anticipated to surpass the 2000 levels by 2004. 

The global economic slowdown and safety and security concerns are inhibiting travel worldwide. In the USA, the administration has been aggressive in addressing these difficulties to contribute towards the recovery of the travel and tourism industry. As our homeland becomes more secure, we believe that international travellers will respond positively. Together with the Tourism Policy Council, the foreign commercial service officers have conveyed the numerous enhanced safety and security measures undertaken by the US Government to potential international visitors. 

Additionally, the Department of Commerce has undertaken a special Tourism Export Expansion Initiative with Japan to expand tourism trade between our countries. We have also discussed a collaborative approach between the public and private sectors that could be introduced in other key markets. In an important sense, the attacks of 11 September did not usher in a new era but, rather, a clearer understanding of the world in which we had been living for some time. The best message that we can convey is by carrying on with our lives. By working, by producing, we deliver a powerful message to those who would destroy our country: "The United States of America is alive and well, and open for business!" For further information, contact Victoria Park at: Victoria_Park@ita.doc.gov

TEN YEARS OF STAGNATION IN EUROPEAN TOURISM - A NEW GLOBAL TREND? Once again the tourism industry has proved to be one of the most resilient and dynamic sectors of the European economy. After a decrease of -0.6% in international tourist arrivals in Europe in 2001 (compared with the record year of 2000), preliminary figures for the first six to eight months of 2002 indicate a small decrease in European inbound tourism again this year (in the region of -0.2% to -0.3%). Travel and tourism are already part of consumer behaviour so that, even with the problems related to the global economic slowdown and terrorism, travellers are still willing to travel more. However, the pattern has changed a little. 

Many European countries have observed increases in domestic tourism, more travel within the same region, more travel by road and rail, more individual trips, more direct booking, and an increased use of low-cost airlines. Some of these changes are probably temporary, but others may be structural. Regarding the supply, there are two main elements: the destinations and the industry. Among the destinations there are some losers and some winners, and their future depends largely on their ability to adapt to demand. In the industry the effects are more visible. 

The airlines, in particular the American carriers, and European tour operators have been hit harder by the weakness of the outbound markets, later booking, the tendency towards shorter length of stay, and cost- cutting on business trips. The industry has to adapt to these new facts. The demand is still there. European destinations and the European travel and tourism industry are world leaders in inbound and outbound tourism. They have shown their capacity to change in the past, and they will know how to respond to the new challenges in order to remain the world's number one destination and first outbound market. For further information, contact Lisa Davies at: l.davies@planetinternet.be

PACIFIC ASIA - THE NEW ENGINE OF GLOBAL TOURISM GROWTH Pacific Asia (the region representing PATA's member countries, including North America and Mexico) is the powerful new engine of global tourism growth. Consider the following: Pacific Asia is the world's fastest-growing region, demographically and economically. It already has two-thirds of the world's population. Travellers to the PATA region spend over US$170 billion annually - around 40% of global tourism receipts. High GDP performances in China (PRC), India and Korea (ROK) suggest this trend will continue. 

Despite 2001 and 2002 being trying times for tourism, the Pacific Asia region - for the most part - is still doing well. Northeast and Southeast Asia are driving the region's growth - both as destinations and as markets. During 2001, almost 65% of international visitor arrivals in Northeast Asia came from within Northeast & Southeast Asia. For destinations within Southeast Asia the proportion was over 64%. In 2001 international visitor arrivals in Northeast Asia increased by 3%, and in Southeast Asia by 5.2%. In the first eight months of 2002 foreign arrivals in China (PRC) increased by more than 16%. The average monthly inbound figure is now over one million. Similar double-digit growth rates can also be seen for Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR. 

Arrivals in Thailand in the first seven months of this year are up 6%. Vietnam is up 10%. International arrivals into Cambodia are up 8%. Outbound traffic from Korea (ROK) is up more than 16% this year to date. Both as a destination and as a market, the tourism scales are dipping increasingly in favour of the PATA region. For further information, contact: Ken Scott at ken@pata.th.com

News@PATA

FAVOURABLE WTM RESPONSE FOR 2003 PATA TRAVEL MART

During WTM, PATA received favourable responses from niche and mainstream tourism operators regarding attendance at the 2003 PATA Travel Mart (October 1-3, 2003 in Singapore). PATA Managing Director-Events, Ms. Sheila Leong is working on the following PTM2003 partnerships: luxury travel sector (Elite Traveler magazine) to bring in buyers such as Virtuoso and Abercrombie & Kent; the International Association of Golf Tour Operators to expand Pacific Asia’s golf potential; and the Connected International Meeting Professionals Association to grow cultural exchange programmes. During PTM2003, a series of workshops will be organised to help the industry better understand these and other niche sectors. India’s Department of Tourism has booked 30 booths at PTM2003 to target intra-regional Asian markets. For further PTM2003 information contact Ms. Leong. Tel: (66-2) 658-2000 ext. 106. Fax: (66-2) 658-2010. E-mail: sheila@pata.th.com. Or visit www.pata.org.

PATA BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING IN BAHRAIN

PATA will hold its next Board of Directors meeting in Bahrain, January 17-20, 2003 - the first time PATA has held a top-level event in the Middle East. The region is playing an increasingly important role as a source market for Pacific Asia destinations. The meeting will take place at the Gulf Hotel, Manama, Bahrain and is for Board, Committee and Life members only. The event is being hosted by the Department of Tourism, Ministry of Information, the Gulf Hotel, Gulf Air and other industry organisations in Bahrain. Several airlines are offering special air fares for delegates and accompanying persons. For full information and registration online, visit http://www.pata.org/frame.cfm?pageid=2&ebid=36 or contact PATA Director-Board Relations, Ms. Ratana Poopitakchatkaew. Tel: (66-2) 658-2000 ext. 102. Fax: (66-2) 658-2010. E-mail: ratana@pata.th.com. For information about Bahrain visit http://www.bahraintourism.com/.

GOLD AWARDS DEADLINE: DECEMBER 15, 2002

December 15, 2002 is the entry deadline for the 2003 PATA Gold Awards -- the premier awards programme that recognises excellence and innovation in the Pacific Asia travel industry. Award recipients will be honoured during a gala luncheon at the 52nd PATA Annual Conference in Bali, Indonesia (April 13-17, 2003). In order to attract entries by smaller operators, PATA has introduced awards in new sub-categories such as Government/Destination (National or State/City); Carrier (Regional, International, Domestic); and Industry (Hotel, Car Rental, Attraction, Tour Operator/Travel Agent/DMC/PCO, Distribution Network, Convention/Exhibition Venue, and Credit Card Company). PATA's Gold Awards are sponsored by the Macau Government Tourist Office. Details and entry forms are available at www.pata.org. For more information, contact PATA Manager-Communications, Ms. Paveena Olansuksakul. Tel: (66-2) 658-2000 ext. 116. Fax: (66-2) 658-2010. E-mail: goldawards@pata.th.com.

SEEKING THE 2003 PATA FACE OF THE FUTURE

PATA is seeking new nominees for the annual PATA Face of the Future award to be announced at the PATA Annual Conference in Bali, Indonesia (April 13-17, 2003). The PATA Face of the Future represents an up-and-coming individual in the Pacific Asia travel industry, one of the next generation of PATA leaders. The 2003 PATA Face of the Future recipient will be invited to attend the PATA Annual Conference in Bali and will receive coverage in PATA Compass, the PATA Conference Daily and at a media briefing during Conference. For more details, contact Mr. Aaron Tan, Manager-Development. Tel: (66-2) 658-2000 ext. 125. Fax: (66-2) 658-2010. E-mail: aaron@pata.th.com.

BANTEN AND LAMPUNG TASK FORCE REPORT OUT NOW

PATA has released the Banten and Lampung Task Force Report. The 84-page study focuses on issues such as planning for sustainable tourism in Indonesia at a time of decentralisation, protecting Indonesia's natural tourism assets, and the role of tourism-related small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs). The report provides practical advice, both for the destination and for readers interested in case studies. The report costs US$50 for PATA members and US$100 for PATA chapters and non-members. To order, tel: (66-2) 658-2000 ext. 121. Or fax: (66-2) 658-2010. E-mail: publications@pata.th.com.

INVITATION TO MICE PROFESSIONALS

The inaugural PATA-CEI Asia Pacific business event ("MICE") survey is currently online at http://www.oneworldi.net/ceipata/micesurvey.asp. The aim of the survey is to assess the health of the corporate business event sector in the Pacific Asia region. PATA encourages all industry operators associated with the business event (MICE) industry to fill out the online survey. For further information e-mail johnk@pata.th.com.

STAYING AHEAD OF CHINESE AVIATION CHANGES

The Sydney-based Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation has released its latest Monthly Essential China: Airports, Airlines & Tourism. The study assesses the impact on China PRC’s "big three" airlines as they enter the integration phase of China (PRC)'s aviation consolidation programme. The report states that after integration "the airlines will need to re-orient themselves for an expected rapid and extended growth phase." The study contains a SWOT analysis of each airline group and analyses likely route rationalisation targets. Annual subscription to Monthly Essential China costs US$595 for PATA members and US$695 for PATA chapters and non-members. To order, tel: (66-2) 658-2000 ext. 121. Or fax: (66-2) 658-2010. E-mail: publications@pata.th.com.

PATA STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE CENTRE WORLDWATCH

** Research by GantnerG2 conducted in September 2002 predicts global online holiday buying will reach US$38.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2002, a 48 percent increase over same period 2001. For the first time, Europeans will spend more money online than North Americans (US$15.77 billion vs. US$15.66 billion) with European online bookings expected to surge ahead 74.7 percent in 4Q. Europe and North America will account for an estimated 82.3 percent of global online sales in 4Q 2002.

** During the first eight months of 2002, American tourists to Canada made 11.9 million overnight trips, up 1.7 percent over same period 2001. This growth was boosted by an increase in overnight car trips of 6.3 percent over 2001. Non-auto entries declined 6.5 percent. The number of Canadian tourists visiting the United States fell 9.5 percent to 9.2 million. Canadian outbound to non-U.S. destinations slipped 7.5 percent to 3.4 million.

** The number of U.K. residents travelling abroad during 3Q of 2002 increased three percent to 15.1 million compared with the same period last year, according to seasonally-adjusted results from the International Passenger Survey revealed by National Statistics UK. U.K. residents' expenditure overseas edged up one percent in 3Q 2002 to GBP6,810 million.

Vietnam World Heritage Road plan on course

TTG Asia  -  Danang City and the other Vietnam provinces incorporated into the World Heritage Road (WHR) www.worldheritageroad.com tourism project are set to get much support all round.

At the WHR’s meeting held in Danang this September, attendees comprising of WHR officials, members and partners concurred on using the same city as next year’s venue for holding the first Global Congress of Theme Roads 2003 next September. During the meeting, the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (VNAT) also pledged full support for the WHR initiative in its tourism promotional efforts for Central Vietnam.

According to VNAT figures, Vietnam welcomed 1.76 million tourists, up 11.2 per cent year-on-year in the first eight months of 2002. Domestic tourists registered 8.1 million for the same period, up 4.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s second carrier, Pacific Airlines, will operate five flights a week from Singapore to Danang via Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) on Boeing aircraft, starting end November. The airline will reschedule its current domestic flights from HCMC to Danang and back to facilitate convenient connections for the Singapore service.  

Source: TTG Asia

UK Hoteliers campaign for full-time tourism chief

Caterer.com  -  Hoteliers are calling on the Government to take the tourism industry more seriously and invest in a full-time chairman to head its new tourism body, rather than appoint a part-timer.

The new body, which will be a merger of the British Tourist Authority (BTA) and the English Tourism Council (ETC) and will come into force in April next year, will be headed by Tom Wright, currently chief executive of the BTA.

The position of BTA chairman, a two-days-a-week post currently held by David Quarmby, is to become vacant in May.

Martin Skan, owner of Chewton Glen in New Milton, Hampshire, is heading a campaign involving some of the UK's top hoteliers, urging the Government to reconsider the appointment. He said that he believes a part-time chairman to be a "waste of time" and simply an excuse for the Government to save money.

Martin Cummings, who owns Amberley Castle hotel in Arundel, West Sussex, described current efforts to promote Britain to the European market as "pathetic", and added that a full-time chairman who was not "slowing down in their career" was needed for the job.

David Levin, owner of London's Capital hotel, described the two-days-a-week post as "an absolute disgrace".

However, the Government is standing firm and has said that it has no intention of installing a full-time chairman. A spokeswoman for the Department for Media, Culture and Sport said: "It is going to be advertised as a two-days-a-week appointment. It is a strategic role, and we feel two days is sufficient."

by Christina Golding

Source: Caterer & Hotelkeeper magazine, 14 - 20 November 2002  

OTE tells the timeshare industry: “Make self-regulation work”

OTE (Organisation for Timeshare in Europe) announced  on Saturday 16^th November at its 5^th annual convention that it is time for the wider industry to fully embrace self-regulation or face the consequences.

The timeshare industry has reached a critical stage in its development.  Over the past five years, the OTE, which has adopted a strict code of conduct to which all members are bound, has worked closely with governments at local and national level, enforcement authorities and government departments such as the DTI and OFT to rid the industry of fraudulent operators.

This has resulted in a drop in the number of consumer complaints lodged against the timeshare industry, however the industry is still dogged by bad press and rumours of malpractice, most of which emanate from fringe products such as resales or holiday clubs. 

Today, the biggest aim going forward is to achieve recognition from the EU, which is a full endorsement of OTE's code of ethics, providing high levels of consumer protection.

OTE is working with the EU in order to make self-regulation more effective.  This means that the thousands of British holiday-makers who buy timeshare holidays each year will in the future be able to buy at an OTE member’s resort in the knowledge that the OTE code of ethics is supported by the EU.

At its 5th annual conference this Saturday, OTE will be standing up to tell the industry why such self regulation is critical to the future of the industry and how it will protect the consumer - a rally call to 'shape up or ship out'.

Peter Van Der Mark, OTE’s Secretary General says, “We have worked tirelessly to clean up this industry and tackle the infamous issues of fraud, deception and the perceived lack of consumer protection.  OTE is proud to have achieved this goal but now recognises that it is time for the industry-wide implementation of an all-embracing self regulatory system based on our code of ethics.  Without this code, the timeshare industry is never going to be truly accepted in Europe, and cannot, in my opinion, continue to grow as a viable holiday option.”

Ron Haylock, OTE Chairman adds, “OTE exists to ensure the most effective commercial climate for its members by becoming the focal reference point for governments, the industry and consumers for advice, support and information on timeshare.  The OTE logo is evolving as the universally acknowledged symbol of quality in the industry and its code of ethics must now be adhered to by all parties to achieve successful industry self regulation”

About OTE

OTE is a pan-European trade association representing the timeshare industry from all EU Member States.  It promotes best practice in the industry for the benefit of both consumers and the industry.  All members are bound by  a code of conduct  which ensures the protection of consumers’ rights.  OTE provides information and advice to consumers and offers a free conciliation service to consumers dealing with its members.

OTE’s code of ethics requires that all products, even if not covered by the Timeshare Directive, are sold with the benefit of a cooling off period of a minimum of 10 days.  This includes holiday clubs and resales.  

IATA Corporate Air Travel Survey 2002  

AsiaTravelTips.com  -  The IATA Corporate Air Travel Survey 2002 reflects the concerns of international corporate travellers with special  attention to new security and facilitation issues, and to the role of low cost carriers and video conferencing in the post 11 September environment.

The Survey covers key factors that influence corporate travel decisions: travel budgets and patterns, airline choice, alliances, aircraft types, the influence of new technology, entertainment & communications and the importance of Frequent Flyer Programmes.

Some highlights are:

With regard to airport and airline security the majority of business travellers (81%) would like to see the use of advanced biometric technology at airports.

One third of all business travellers have used a "no frills/low cost" airline in the past 12 months mainly for the cost benefit, and a total of 37% use video conferencing to save travel time and money.

Business travellers are showing increasing interest in in-flight business facilities with connecting passenger information and email/internet access all rated as important in-flight features. In fact more than 3 out of 5 of all business travellers would be willing to pay a one-off supplement for email/internet access.

The Corporate Air Travel Survey 2002 consists of a Core Report and 4 additional Modules on the In-flight Experience, Choice of Airline, Use of New Technology and New Considerations in Corporate Air Travel.

The Survey (complete with trend data going back to 2000) will be available on IATA’s new online service: Global Aviation Business Intelligence (www.iataGABI.com) by end November 2002.

Search ASIA Travel Tips .com  

Sydney: Hotel Managers Battle It Out For The ANA

Australia Financial Review  -  Some of the most prestigious global hotel brands will be battling it out in coming weeks for the right to manage one of Sydney's most glittering hotel prizes, the ANA Harbour Grand at the Rocks.

Both the winner and the new owner of the hotel, the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, will search for a formula to reshape the languishing Sydney accommodation scene.

At the very least, the deal is expected to re-invigorate the exclusive club at the "deluxe" end of the spectrum.

Eligible suitors will need impeccable credentials.

They will need to have world-class recognition, a seamlessly integrated marketing system with the very best connections and need to be prepared to stake a very high price for the honour.

Peer leaders on the short list include the Singapore-based Asian beau, the Shangrila group, which has been circling Australia looking for a way into hotel high society for several years now.

Another is the Hyatt, which has a good presence in most Australian cities but could do with more than its 158-room Park Hyatt in Sydney and for which the ANA could be its "missing link", as one observer has put it. The Regent group is also among the contenders.

So what will these suitors need to put up as their credentials?

Forget the old-style contracts struck in the early days of prestige hotel development when owners gave away their prize possessions for a song.

These contracts had ridiculously long management agreements of up to 20 years and set fees that left no incentive for out-performance.

The result was often a dead weight of badly returning capital and hotel managers laughing all the way to an easy life.

SGIC knows its stuff. After its purchase of the ANA for $ 206.5million and $ 160 million for the Westin in Martin Place this year, the canny Singaporean investor is now a major hotel owner in Australia. It will be looking for agreements of only five to 10 years, with plenty of performance hurdles built in that could sever the relationship after a year or two for non-performance.

It will want a nice steady fee, perhaps 1 per cent of total revenue, but will be a lot more generous on the incentives: between 8-12 per cent of gross operating profit, but more likely to be 10 per cent. The Westin is understood to be on a "1 and 9" deal, according to market information.

At this rate, the investor could relax and know it is getting a steady yield that will not boom and bust along with the typically volatile market it has bought into, enjoying the upside when it comes.

But what does the ANA offer in return? A hotel built to be the best in the country according to price.

Constructed during the boom years of the 1980s by wild Japanese entrepreneur EIE, the hotel was built at a cost of $ 450 million. With its 570 rooms, that works out at nearly $ 800,000 a room, compared with the more typical cost of $ 500,000 a room. Even so, the ANA has been struggling. Rates have languished at about $ 230 to $ 240 a night, and occupancy has been trailing at about 50 per cent.

This is well in the wake of market leader, the Park Hyatt, at about $ 440 a night and even the next most expensive brand, the Quay West and Observatory, at $ 320 to $ 330 a night.

Another weakness for the hotel is that its traditional distribution is in the Japanese and US markets, sectors that are now "incredibly weak", according to a source.

But no matter how difficult the match making, a deal will simply have to be struck.

"For a hotel like that, it simply can't run independently, it has to have very strong backing. It's all about distribution these days," said the source.

"That is why in the past five years, there has been a massive move away from independents towards global brands. That would be the only way of increasing rates."

The backdrop is the top end of the hotel market dominated by the Sheraton, the Westin, Four Seasons and the ANA, each languishing in oversupply and failing interest from overseas visitors.

David Gibson of Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, has been appointed agent for SCIG, but would not comment.

KEY POINTS

* Suitors will need impeccable credentials and be prepared to pay a high price for the honour.

* Although yields look steady, the ANA is trailing its peers in the market.

NZ Tourism numbers, spending up

The number of tourists visiting New Zealand increased 3.8 per cent to 1.96 million during the past year, Tourism New Zealand's annual report shows.

Board chairman Wally Stone said in the report, tabled in Parliament today, that the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States initially affected tourism here; visitor numbers decreased and fluctuations continued well into 2002.

"However, in the end, we came through those turbulent times relatively unscathed," he said.

"Many other countries continue to have large decreases in visitor numbers. Our industry was surprised at the speed with which things got back to `normal'."

Chief executive George Hickton said The Lord of the Rings movie had provided a "wonderful opportunity" to build New Zealand's international profile.

"Our offices throughout the world worked to ensure that international media coverage of the film included destinational coverage of New Zealand," he said in the report.

"The interest was phenomenal and resulted in substantial coverage."

Initiatives to continue increasing tourism numbers included launching a revamped website during the year, www.purenz.com, which was already attracting more than 66,000 users a month, Mr Hickton said.

Australia provided the most visitors, up 2.1 per cent to 624,249. They stayed an average of 11 nights and spent $1770.

The number of visitors from both China and Korea increased hugely; China was up 51.8 per cent to 65,110 and South Korea up 31.2 per cent to 97,880. They stayed an average of 32 and 26 nights respectively and both spent on average $4247.

Visitors from Japan dropped 6.8 per cent to 150,343 but were the biggest spenders, averaging $4603 over 17 days, or $270 a day.

Overall, tourists spent $5.66 billion, up 11.8 per cent from last year.

Tourism NZ ended the year with a net operating surplus of $4.4m - well up on last year's deficit of $2.3m and due mostly to Government grants.  

Get a Room

By  Christina Wood   PC Magazine

Remember when you could attract a crowd just by bragging about the deal you got online for plane tickets? Now, practically no one books leisure flights any other way. In the context of hotels, though, things are just heating up: Online hotel-room bookings in 2002 are up 20 percent from the previous year, and Expedia estimates that the sales of its special-rate hotel rooms have tripled from 2001 to 2002.

Yet the hotel industry is a morass of big chains, small operators, and consolidators, and you have to consider price, area, amenities, room size, and sometimes even Web access. But plenty of merchants are trying to figure it all out.

The big travel sites are revamping their hotel offerings, new sites are launching, and your favorite hotel probably has a spanking new Web site. The opportunities are so hot that five hotel chains—Hilton Hotels, Hyatt Corp., Marriott International, Six Continents Hotels, and Starwood Hotels—along with Pegasus Solutions, a provider of technology to the lodging industry, formed an alliance to build a consumer Web site, Travelweb (www.travelweb.com). The site was not fully operational at the time of this writing, so we could not review it. (Travelweb is scheduled to launch in late September.)

Right now, the Web is the way to go to get the best hotel-room prices. Still, you have to hunt to find them. We used six sites to book rooms for three trips: bargain accommodations in Charleston (South Carolina), a good deal in San Francisco, and the best room we could find in Boston. We considered search features, available hotels, room prices, and how easy it was to find what we wanted. Keep in mind that deals can change daily—even by the minute—so keep shopping right up until your departure date. But if you find a fantastic deal, book it: It could be gone in an hour

Expedia.com

Editor Rating:

In terms of search features, the number of hotels represented, and extras, Expedia.com rules. It offers bargain-rate deals with 6,000 hotels, and it sells rooms at the standard rate for 43,000 more. You can sort search results by price, class, or city. Or choose the map feature, pick the area you want, and filter out everything else.

Expedia recently launched a know-before-you-go feature, which adds virtual walk-throughs along with photos of the hotels' pools, lobbies, and more. We especially like the idea that you can buy tickets to events—often at bargain rates—while booking a room.

Expedia also did well on our price tests. Only Priceline.com found us a cheaper room in San Francisco. Though the room Expedia found was in a boutique hotel that required us to share a bath, photos convinced us that it wasn't a dump. Be warned that Expedia Special Rates require you to pay for your room when you make the booking, with a penalty for canceling your reservation

hotels.com 
 
Editor Rating:

hotels.com buys up blocks of hotel rooms and sells them at deep discounts. You pay when you book, and you pay a fee (typically $10) to cancel reservations. The site didn't find us the cheapest room for any of our trips, but we did find some deals.

The site's search functions are simple but powerful, letting you sort by price, quality, and proximity to a landmark. The mapping feature is basic, and there are no extras; you'll see hotel rooms (and some vacation properties) only. The level of detail provided is merely adequate.

Keep in mind that price is not the only factor to consider: Availability can often be a problem. When a hotel itself and all the big travel sites are sold out, you may still get lucky with hotels.com. Company president and director Bob Diener estimates that the site will have 8,000 negotiated deals with hotels by press time

Orbitz
 
Editor Rating:

Orbitz, the travel Web site run by a consortium of airlines, recently became the first site to ink a deal with the new Travelweb consortium. The site's search features are strong, letting you select a particular chain, rating, or location. You can even search by proximity to a specific address or search for hotels with particular amenities.

There are few extras, such as photos or detailed views of rooms. Prices were not the best of the pack, either. But keep watching: Orbitz is adding about two hotels a week and expects to beef up its entire hotel offering rapidly.

Priceline.com 

Editor Rating:

Priceline.com can be risky. If you do your homework on competitive prices, you could get a great deal—and a small thrill. Don't start bidding recklessly, though: You may find yourself with a room an hour out of town in a disappointing hotel.

You tell the site what price, neighborhood, and dates you want. Things work pretty much the way they do with Priceline.com's airfares: If the site finds a hotel willing to take your offer, your credit card is charged.

During our testing, we got astonishing deals: $39 a night for a Holiday Inn room that cost more than $85 elsewhere, and $45 at the Hyatt Regency in Embarcadero Center in San Francisco. In Boston, we found it wasn't possible to bid on a five-star room; the highest rating was four stars. We did get a room at a four-star hotel for $120, though. Priceline.com offers 8,500 hotels, and it lets you add another room or extra nights at your Priceline.com price, if availability permits.

Quikbook

Editor Rating:

This is the Web site of a long-respected booking service that has been selling discounted rates on upscale hotel rooms since 1988. It's not the place to go if you want the most inexpensive rooms, but do check it out for a good deal on luxury accommodations.

We tried to book a room at a five-star hotel in Boston for a night in October. We were able to choose from the best hotels, for about $270 per room each, which was often hundreds of dollars less than we would have paid elsewhere. We did find the odd cheaper room at other sites, but Quikbook insists you can't get the same room for a better price.

Since the site doesn't handle anything but hotels—and only about 1,200 at that—it's simple to use. The strongest feature is that Quikbook's staff visits and rates every hotel, so even if you can't see photos of everything, you benefit from a detailed and objective rating system. The site doesn't accept (or place) any advertising, which gives it a feel of independence. There's no fee to cancel reservations.

Travelocity.com

Editor Rating:

Travelocity.com is an old hand at online travel, so its search features are extensive. You can refine your hotel search to include hotels near an airport or a point of interest. You can also specify a maximum distance from your city or from an address—which is key, since some search engines return properties all over the map. The site has negotiated hotel prices called GoodBuy deals: You pay when you book, and there is a fee to cancel reservations.

On our price tests, Travelocity.com was only fair: It found a room at the Ritz in Boston for $212, but otherwise it didn't get the most aggressive deals. And finding a five-star hotel in Boston was not a simple matter. We had to submit to the inquiries of the Hotel Expert, which asked us to characterize ourselves: Were we History Buffs or Spa & Sports Nuts? The results were fine, but the inquisition was meddlesome.

We do like the reviews written by fellow travelers, which seem more objective than the hotels' own reviews and include juicy details such as "The bathroom wasn't clean."

Source:  HotelMarketing.com

Workforce Planning: The Strategy Behind “Strategic Staffing”

by Christina Morfeld

A company’s annual budgeting process generally requires managers to project personnel requirements for the upcoming fiscal period. Unfortunately, this task offers little value beyond influencing the short-term allocation of corporate funds. Besides narrowly focusing on a single year, needs are typically assessed in relation to the status quo.

Yet the harsh reality is that the business world is changing at a dizzying pace, and what makes sense today may not a year from now. Technology, in particular, is constantly redefining the nature of work.

And despite the prevalence of the phrase “strategic staffing,” most recruitment activities can be described as tactical at best. In fact, more often than not, they are reactive: An employee quits, and Human Resources – through no fault of its own – scrambles to fill the vacated position.

While this may seem unavoidable, almost any recruiter or HR generalist will argue that there is a more effective way to staff a company. But even the most ambitious HR team can be only as proactive as the organizational context allows. As is the case with many HR projects, the “full support” of corporate leaders is not enough; a successful workforce planning initiative often requires sweeping changes to company-wide processes and procedures, and demands the commitment and cooperation of all levels of management.

What is workforce planning and why should we bother?

Workforce planning is a systematic approach to anticipating staffing needs and determining what actions should be taken – starting now – to meet those needs. This multi-step process involves:

• Gaining a thorough understanding of your current workforce;
• Envisioning the operating environment that will most likely exist in the future;
• Identifying the competencies that will move the firm forward to overcome challenges, seize opportunities, and thrive in what will undoubtedly be a new world of work; and
• Developing strategies and implementing tactics for building this workforce.

Workforce planning puts you “one step ahead,” resulting in informed staffing decisions that benefit the company in both the short- and long-term. Its many advantages, however, are not limited to recruitment and selection; it also provides a framework for other HR policies and programs such as training, compensation, and diversity management. More importantly, it helps you recognize the most effective and efficient use of your organization’s human capital in creating a workforce that is – and will continue to be – flexible and responsive in these fast-changing times.

Okay, we’re convinced! How do we get started?

While variations may exist from one organization to the next, workforce planning generally follows this four-step model:

Step 1: Supply Analysis

The first – and most straightforward – step in workforce planning is to identify the composition (demographics) and capabilities (competencies) of your current workforce. It also involves examining attrition statistics, including resignations, retirements, internal transfers and promotions, and involuntary terminations. Technology – HRIS applications and “skills inventories” in particular – can be an enormously helpful data-gathering tool. Armed with this information, you can develop a profile of your current staff as it will exist in the future in the absence of management action. In other words, this is what your workforce will “look like” if all recruitment, training, and other HR programs are suspended.

Step 2: Demand Analysis

The purpose of demand analysis is to forecast the competencies that will be required by your future workforce for your organization to be successful. In order to do this, you must first try to predict how the nature of the work will change. Both internal and external influences must be considered. These include business mission, strategies, and goals as well as legislation, economic conditions, technological advances, and market competition. “Scenario planning” is an effective way to systematically evaluate the interplay of multiple variables.

Step 3: Gap Analysis

As the name implies, gap analysis is the comparison of the supply and demand data collected during Steps 1 and 2. The result is the determination of skill surpluses and deficiencies. While identifying competencies that are lacking is an obvious goal of this activity, it is equally important to understand which are in excess. After all, employees with skills that will be needed to a lesser extent – if at all – in several years are of limited long-term value to your organization. No matter how well they perform now, they may eventually become obsolete without corporate intervention. Gap analysis helps you pinpoint who is at risk and proactively deal with each situation as appropriate.

Step 4: Solution Analysis

Solution analysis is the development of strategies for closing the gaps identified in Step 3. Specifically, it is the identification of ways to build skills that are in short supply and reduce those that are overly-abundant in relation to your organization’s projected needs. A variety of targeted recruitment, development, and retention activities can be employed to achieve these ends.

Your solution analysis should be squarely focused on optimizing your current and future workforce. It is important, therefore, that you consider alternatives to traditional “permanent” employees. “Blended staffing” is becoming an increasingly popular business strategy that enables firms to expand and contract their workforce as needed. It involves maintaining a core group of employees possessing skills aligned with the organization’s area of specialization, and assigning work that is non-critical to the business to contingent staff. This purposeful mix of fixed and variable workers allows firms to better manage and reduce costs by paying for labor only when they need it. More importantly, it facilitates corporate agility. According to Catherine Candland, founder and CEO of Advantage Human Resourcing (www.advhr.com): “A Talent provider committed to aligning itself as your organization’s strategic partner can help you balance your workforce and adapt to changing market conditions. A customized staffing plan will put the right people in the right jobs at the right time, improving your company’s competitive edge and bottom-line results.”

Diversity is another important consideration. Employees experience personal growth as they learn from one anothers' insights and perspectives, and the organization's ability to innovate, solve problems, and meet the needs of an increasingly diverse customer base is greatly enhanced. To remain competitive – in the consumer marketplace as well as the labor market – your solution analysis must specifically address the challenge of attracting and retaining a talent pool that is highly-qualified and diverse.

Is that all there is to it?

Your efforts will be in vain if the four steps described above occur in a vacuum. Workforce planning is an ongoing process that influences – and is influenced by – all aspects of an organization. These inter-relationships must be identified, managed, and leveraged for best results. Below are some critical success factors to guide your activities.

• Draw a direct link between the workforce plan and your company’s strategic mission. Unless you are able to clearly communicate a causal relationship – preferably in terms of a quantifiable return-on-investment – you will be unlikely to gain top management support and the necessary corporate resources.
• While the “blessing” of your organization’s management team is essential, it alone will do little to inspire the cooperation of others. An executive-level “champion,” on the other hand, will typically generate the buy-in that you need.
• Involve a variety of key stakeholders in the workforce planning process. At minimum, HR, Strategic Planning, Finance, IT, line management, and any unions should be represented. This ensures that multiple perspectives are considered and gives the plan legitimacy.
• Be sure to integrate the workforce plan with other HR programs – such as organizational development, succession planning, and career pathing – that are also designed to prepare the company and its individual staff members to thrive now and in the future.
• Determine the scope of the project up front. Will you run a “pilot” in one or more specified departments, or will you immediately launch the program company-wide? Will you target a few key occupations or your entire staff? (In general, starting small allows you to continually improve the process by building “lessons learned” into each subsequent phase of the rollout.)
• Assign a dedicated staff member to manage the process. For large-scale projects, additional resources may be necessary.
• Avoid being overly prescriptive in your workforce plan. Rather, develop a simple model and tools that managers can adapt to their particular needs, and provide training and ongoing support on their use.
• Despite this article’s emphasis on competencies, many additional factors influence an individual’s on-the-job success. According to Ms. Candland, 80% of job separations – whether voluntary or involuntary – are due to poor “fit.” Advantage Human Resourcing therefore uses a multi-dimensional assessment to determine whether a candidate is well-suited for a company’s unique needs and work environment. Their Can Do, Will Do, Will Fit approach evaluates a wide range of personal attributes (e.g., motivation, work style, attitude, and professional goals to name just a few), greatly enhancing the work performance and satisfaction of their Associates. Ms. Candland strongly encourages all employers to consider these issues along with skills during the workforce planning process.
• Communicate the initiative to all levels of the organization, highlighting the benefits it will bring to employees as well as the organization as a whole.
• Hold managers accountable for adhering to – and achieving desired results from – the workforce plan.
• Most importantly, do not view workplace planning as a one-time endeavor. Rather, it should be a continuous loop that includes ongoing evaluation of both the inputs and outputs of the process. Specifically:
• Have the internal and/or external environments changed?
  If the assumptions underlying your solution analysis are no longer valid, it will probably be necessary to adjust your competency profiles and intervention strategies accordingly.
• Does the workforce plan serve the organization’s needs?
  If the desired business outcomes were not achieved, you must examine and reconstruct your methodology and implementation procedures as appropriate.

Is there anything else that we should know? 

While future business demands cannot be predicted with absolute certainty, we must do our best to anticipate and prepare for likely possibilities. A workforce plan that is carefully designed and executed transforms the staffing function from a “vacancy-filling” role to one that continually ensures alignment between an organization’s human capital and its strategic goals. This not only improves employee utilization, but also the company’s overall effectiveness and competitive positioning. 

Even if your forecasted competency requirements prove inaccurate, a comprehensive workforce planning process has built-in triggers to get you back on track. Additionally, the very exercise will have enhanced your firm’s ability to respond swiftly and intelligently to changing conditions.

Today’s fast-paced business world shows no signs of slowing down. Can your organization afford not to keep up? 

About the author:

Christina Morfeld is a writer for Suite101.com and president of Affinity Business Communications, a provider of high-quality instructional design, technical writing, and content development solutions. Whether writing to instruct, inform, or persuade, our work is reader-focused, benefits-oriented, and results-driven. Visit our website at http://www.affinitybizcomm.com to learn how we can increase your firm's sales and effectiveness!

Copyright © 2002 Christina Morfeld and Affinity Business Communications, LLC. Originally published by Suite101.com. All rights reserved